Farage twist is just the first – expect many more surprises

You can’t predict anything in this election campaign, as the Brexit Party leader has shown already, writes Brian Monteith

Parliament has not yet been dissolved and already the general election planned for 12 December is throwing up surprises.

Nigel Farage deciding not to contest a parliamentary seat is one of them. Despite Farage receiving the best wishes of President Donald Trump on his LBC radio show for him and Boris to team up, and the apparent inducements of a peerage if he were to change tack and not pose a threat to Conservative candidates, the leader of the Brexit Party has chosen a different course.

Many a commentator who was keen to suggest Farage could and should be bought, that he wants to prolong EU membership to benefit from its largesse now have eggs on their faces. Farage is not interested in being in government, he’s not interested in becoming an MP, he merely wants to see a genuine Brexit delivered and to do that he needs to be on the campaign trail – not nursing a seat that restricts his ability to travel the country.

When Farage fought South Thanet in 2015 he ended up spending 80 per cent of his time there and it had a manifest impact on the Ukip campaign which promised so much but in the end only managed to elect one MP from nearly four million votes and a 12.6 per cent share of the votes cast. This time he will be free to visit the whole of Great Britain, which he is proposing to do.

He will be able to draw thousands to public meetings and energise local campaigns, and his opponents may yet rue his decision and wish he had indeed embedded himself by fighting a seat.

It’s not as if Farage will be going away anywhere fast. If the Prime Minister fails to win a majority, Farage will still be on hand in the European Parliament if the EU and remain-supporting MPS prolong our membership and seek to drag out Brexit further through yet another extension until the end of 2020.

Another election surprise is the claim the SNP will campaign hard on independence and seek a mandate for a second referendum. I argue it would be a surprise because we know the SNP’S past form, it takes the form of a lot of bold talk at party conferences and prior to an election campaign – but then when we get down to the hard reality on the ground we shall find leaflets and campaign materials do not even mention a second referendum, never mind independence.

Indeed this formula of deception, which has clearly worked to the party’s benefit in the past, is already being applied to constituency leaflets that are dropping through electors’ letterboxes. Bad Tories this, bad Tories that, but any mention of a second referendum or independence? Nope, not a hope.

Surprises like Farage’s announcement stand out because there is much that is predictable and true to past form. Observing it as dispassionately as I can, the most obvious is Labour proclaiming the NHS is yet again under threat from the Tories. It’s not my job to defend the Conservative Party but anyone with the ability to count up to 100 will be able to work out the NHS has existed now for over seven decades and of that time the Tories have been in charge for 44 of its 71 years. Does it remain under state control, is it still free at the point of demand? Yes and yes.

Will the NHS have loads of money thrown at it by whichever party forms a government, and will it look the same in five years time after the government has run its course? Yes and yes. The reason for this is the