Tory landslide ‘means Scots economy will grow faster’
Economic growth in Scotland is forecast to rise in 2020 after the election removed the immediate threat of a no-deal Brexit.
Experts at the Fraser of Allander Institute forecast GDP growth of 1.3 per cent for Scotland in 2020, with this to rise slightly to 1.4 per cent in the following two years.
That is up from the 0.9 per cent forecast for 2019 – although they stressed the increases over the next three years are based on the assumption the UK government will be able to strike a trade deal with the European Union before the end of 2020.
If that does not happen, economic growth could “slow sharply” towards the end of next year, they warned.
Economic growth in Scotland is forecast to rise in 2020 after Boris Johnson’s majority election victory removed the immediate threat of a no-deal Brexit.
Experts at the Fraser of Allander Institute have now forecast GDP growth of 1.3 per cent for Scotland in 2020, with this to rise slightly to 1.4 per cent in the following two years.
That is up from the 0.9 per cent forecast for 2019 although the report stresses the increases over the next three years are based on the assumption the UK government will be able to strike a trade deal with the European Union before the end of 2020.
If that does not happen, economic growth could “slow sharply” towards the end of next year, the latest economic commentary warned.
It said: “With the immediate risk of a no-deal now removed, our forecasts for 2020-2022 are slightly better at 1.3 per cent for 2020 and 1.4 per cent for 2021 and 2022.
“This of course assumes that a UK-EU trade deal is agreed during 2020.
“If not, growth could slow sharply towards the tail end of next year.”
With the SNP increasing its tally of MPS from 35 to 47 in the general election, leading Nicola Sturgeon to call for a second vote on Scottish independence, the report stressed “constitutional questions will remain dominant in the political debate”.
Professor Graeme Roy, the director of the economic think tank, warned Scotland could “face a stark choice between aligning to the EU trading bloc or the UK bloc”.
While he said the outcome of the election was “only likely to intensify the debate over the prospects for a second independence referendum”, he said there would most likely be “important differences” between a possible referendum next year and the one that was held in 2014.