Fragility of Notre Dame leaves it with 50% chance of being saved
● Scaffolding that was installed before fire poses risk to landmark
The rector of Notre Dame Cathedral says the Paris landmark is still so fragile that there’s a “50 per cent chance” the structure might not be entirely saved, because scaffolding installed before this year’s fire is threatening the vaults of the Gothic monument.
Monsignor Patrick Chauvet said restoration work isn’t likely to begin until 2021 – and described his “heartache” at not being able to celebrate Christmas services inside Notre Dame this year, for the first time since the French Revolution.
“Today it is not out of danger,” he said on the sidelines of Christmas Eve midnight Mass in a nearby church. “It will be out of danger when we take out the remaining scaffolding.
Today we can say that there is maybe a 50 per cent chance that it will be saved.
“There is also a 50 per cent chance of scaffolding falling on to the three vaults, so as you can see the building is still very fragile,” he said.
The 12th-century cathedral was under renovation at the time of the accidental April fire, which destroyed its roof and collapsed its spire.
One of the toughest parts of the cleanup effort is cutting down the 50,000 tubes of old scaffolding that crisscrossed the back of the edifice.
“We need to remove completely the scaffolding in order to make the building safe so in 2021 we will probably start the restoration of the cathedral,” Chauvet said.
“Once the scaffolding is removed we need to assess the state of the cathedral, the quantity of stones to be removed and replaced.”
He estimated it would take another three years after that to make it safe enough for people to re-enter the cathedral, but that the full restoration will take longer. President Emmanuel Macron has said he wants it rebuilt by 2024, when Paris hosts the Olympics, but experts have questioned whether that time frame is realistic.
Unable to celebrate Christmas in Notre Dame this year, its congregation, clergy and choir decamped to the Saintgermain l’auxerrois Church across from the Louvre Museum instead.
Parishioners at Christmas Eve Mass shared sorrow about the fire, but also a feeling of solidarity.
“I remember my mother told me that she was watching TV, and that there was a fire at Notre Dame. I told her ‘it’s not possible,’ and I took my bike, and when I arrived I was crying,” said Jean-luc Bodam, a Parisian engineer who used to cross town to attend services at the cathedral. “We are French, we are going to try to rebuild Notre Dame as it was before, because it is a symbol,” he said.
“It isn’t the same feeling but it’s still a Christmas mass,” said 16-year-old Juliette, who had made the 435-mile trip from Aix-en-provence with her family.
“There will be a thought for Notre Dame tonight, that’s for sure.”
The building had remained open for Christmas through two centuries – including the Nazi occupation in the Second World War – being forced to close only during the anticatholic revolutionary period in the late 18th and early 19th centuries.
Macron has set a timetable of five years to completely repair the 800-year-old building, which remains shrouded in scaffolding.
Paris prosecutors suspect criminal negligence and opened an investigation in June, suggesting a stray cigarette butt or an electrical fault could be the culprit. The culture ministry said in October that nearly €1bn (£856m) had been pledged or raised for the reconstruction. The cathedral’s construction begun in 1160 under Bishop Maurice de Sully and was largely complete by 1260, though it was modified frequently in the following centuries.