PRO-EU Scots moving towards Yes
A small majority of Scots now back independence, a new poll has found, as the UK prepares to leave the European Union.
The Yougov survey shows that the “Yes” vote leads “No” by 51 per cent to 49 per cent – the first time that the organisation has shown a lead for independence since 2015.
About one in five Scots who voted No in 2014, but back EU membership, have shifted to independence, according to the poll. But 56 per cent of Scots don’t believe there should not be a referendum this in year in line with First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s preferred timescale.
The poll emerged the day after the Scottish Parliament voted in favour of holding a second referendum on independence, with the SNP government seeking to stage it this year. This has been rejected by the UK government which has control over the constitution.
The poll was carried out between January 22 and 27 and polled 1039 adults north of the Border. Those who didn’t vote in the independence vote in 2014 or the 2016 EU referendum, including those who were too young to vote, now back Yes by 51 per cent.
Chris Curtis, political research manager at Yougov, said: “These are concerning times for Unionists, with Yes gaining considerable ground on No since 2014. But ultimately, whether a referendum happens won’t be decided by polling, but the political manoeuvres of the Scottish and British governments.
“If there is a referendum, Scottish opposition to Brexit does give Nationalists an opportunity to win more voters over to their cause.”
The SNP still have their work cut out to persuade Scots of the economic case for independence, with 42 per cent believing the country would be worse off economically outside the UK, while 35 per cent think better off.
But Ms Sturgeon is still the most trusted politician on Scotland’s future, while none of the leaders of prounion parties poll well on trust.
A spokesman for the First Minister said Brexit is shifting attitudes.
“We’ve known ever since the Brexit vote that a lot of people who voted No in 2014 have been changing their minds, or considering changing their minds at least, about independence,” he said.
But Pamela Nash, chief executive of Scotland in Union, pointed to the fact just 34 per cent back a referendum this year. “This poll proves that Nicola Sturgeon is not speaking for the majority of people in Scotland when she demands a divisive second independence referendum this year.”