Almost one in five coronavirus cases in China could be fatal, say experts
Just under a fifth of known cases of the new coronavirus in China may be resulting in death, a new report estimates.
The case fatality ratio (CFR) for people in Hubei province is 18 per cent, researchers from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis suggest. They estimate the CFR is much lower in travellers outside China – at between 1.2 and 5.6 per cent.
And the overall CFR in all infections, both asymptomatic and symptomatic, is around 1 per cent, they suggest.
The researchers, based at Imperial College London, write: “It is important to note that the differences in these estimates does not reflect underlying differences in disease severity between countries.
“CFRS seen in individual countries will vary depending on the sensitivity of different surveillance systems to detect cases of differing levels of severity and the clinical care offered to severely ill cases.”
They analysed the onset of symptoms, recovery and/ or death of 290 international travellers from China, and looked at infection prevalence detected in repatriation flights to Japan and Germany.
The researchers estimate this to be around 22 days from onset to recovery or onset to death in cases of the new coronavirus. Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious disease at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the research showed great variance in fatality rates.