Big spenders better get big plans right

Free bus travel for under-18s sounds expensive but could help the fight against climate change

These days, it seems like the heads of every political leader, regardless of party affiliation, would turn abruptly on hearing Dame Shirley Bassey’s arresting delivery of the line “Hey big spender, spend, a little time with me”.

Boris Johnson’s UK Government has committed to HS2 high-speed rail link, which may end up with a price tag of £106 billion, according to one independent estimate, and is looking into the viability of a bridge between Scotland and Northern Ireland, among other major public spending plans that are causing some jitters among the fiscally conservative ahead of the UK Budget.

Now the SNP has struck a deal with the Scottish Greens that will enable the Scottish Government to pass the Scottish Budget – a vital step – which will result in free bus travel for all those under the age of 18 in Scotland.

It was not immediately apparent how much this will cost, but one hopes someone in the Scottish Government did the sums before making the commitment. Whatever the figure, fiscal conservatives may shudder at the thought of public money being spent in this way.

However, given the need to rapidly cut carbon emissions – important in the fight against climate change and also to ensure the future health of Scotland’s economy – there are other factors to consider in the cost-benefit analysis. Persuading people to switch from cars to public transport should be a key part of the strategy as more efficient use of energy will be important as the demand for electricity increases.

The key question raised by free bus rides for children is whether this measure stacks up when carbon emissions are added into the equation. It’s hard to tell without the figures and without knowing how big a change in travelling habits it will produce.

These are huge decisions. If we get them right, Scotland should progress to a net-zero carbon future smoothly and our economy should reap the benefits of being fit for the new industrial revolution that has already begun.

Get them wrong – by wasting money that would be better spent elsewhere – and we could end up lagging behind the rest of the world.

The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has warned that companies which ignore the need to fight climate change will go bust. A similarly gloomy fate awaits countries which fail to take action or, more accurately, the correct action.