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Pandemic likely to peak in next seven to ten days, says government adviser

The coronavirus pandemic is likely to peak in the next seven to ten days meaning that social distancing measures could be relaxed within weeks, according to a leading scientist and government adviser.

Professor Neil Ferguson, whose predictions about the spread of the virus prompted the government to impose the lockdown in the first place, said new hospital admissions had started to fall and he expected the decline to accelerate this week – while cautioning that it was early days.

He said “exit plans” had not yet been formulated but would be put in place in the next week or two.

“We are not at the level of being able to predict to the nearest day when the peak arrives. [But] I would say in the next seven to ten days,” Prof

Ferguson told the BBC. “The critical thing first is to get case numbers down, and then I’m hopeful [that] in a few weeks’ time we will be able to move to a regime which will not be normal life, let me emphasise that, but will be somewhat more relaxed in terms of social distancing and the economy, but relying more on testing.

“We want to move to a situation where, at least by the end of May, we’re able to substitute some less intensive measures, more based on technology and testing, for the complete lockdown we have now.”

One technology under consideration is an app that makes a record of all the other app users a person comes into contact with and alerts them if they catch the virus so they can self-isolate. Research suggests this could be effective if 60 per cent of the population downloaded the app.

The increased focus on an exit strategy comes amid reports that Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Matt Hancock are at war over when to lift the economically damaging lockdown.

Mr Sunak is arguing that unless a path is mapped now for a swift return to normal economic activity it could cause lasting damage to the country while Mr Hancock is pushing for a longer lockdown.

Meanwhile, Frank Atherton, chief medical officer of Wales, said it was crucial that the easing of restrictions was perfectly timed.

He said: “The problem is this is just the first wave and then what happens beyond this, as we start to release the lockdown, there’s always a risk that the virus will re-emerge.”