A 20% fall in UK economy caused by virus and a nodeal Brexit would surely end PM’S career, says Joyce Mcmillan

just as it struggles back to its feet after the Covid crisis. The UK has refused to seek an extension of the transition period, despite the unprecedented economic circumstances; and the latest news is that the UK Government is offering to introduce a tariff regime that would make a mockery of its promise of “frictionless trade” with the EU while also briefing noisily against the political agreement signed by Boris Johnson himself, as recently as January.

The belief of those closest to Johnson, it seems, is that none of these crises necessarily poses a long-term threat to the government’s popularity. On Black Lives Matter, they doubtless feel that a little antiracist bluster will carry the government through, and that Britain’s overwhelming white majority – 87 per cent at the last count – can be relied on not to prioritise the issue, when the chips are down. On Covid-19 they face a tougher task, with so many families bereaved, or closely in touch with front-line workers; but with the help of sympathetic headlines, they probably believe they can bamboozle most of the British public into ignoring embarrassing international comparisons and believing that Britain did the best it could in the face of an unavoidable natural disaster.

When it comes to the economy though, and the impact of Brexit on trade and employment, Boris Johnson’s chances of bluffing his way through the traumatic year to come seem much less robust. According to the New York Times, some senior Tories imagine that the Covid-19 economic collapse will actually provide good cover for the negative impact of Brexit and enable a blame-shifting exercise in which people will essentially come to