Poor harvest ‘ won’t raise bread prices’

Despite the recent flurry of “poor harvest causes bread price hike” headlines in the media, when inflation is taken into account bread is currently at its lowest price since 2017.

Claiming that although the 40 per cent reduction in the national wheat harvest could lead to more reliance on imported wheat, industry analysts at t he Agricultural and Horticultural Develop - ment Board ( AHDB), said that the price of wheat had a negligible effect on the price of bread.

And the analysts, who provide market data on agricultural products, added that in 2020, lower bread prices had actually been a part of the reason that inflation levels had been falling.

Estimating that the value of wheat in a loaf stood at only 11 per cent of the total, the effects of labour, baking, wrapping materials and transport – and especially marketing – all played a bigger role.

“With a small harvest and increased imports, our domestic milling wheat prices have been moved higher,” the AHDB said. “However, the price of a loaf on the shelf will be far more influenced by the need for supermarkets to keep consistent prices for consumers amid the record- breaking recession we face ( and possible deflation).”

Looking at previous weather-driven spikes in the price of wheat the organisation said that in 2016 t he average bread price stood at £1.33/ kg, with wheat at £ 133.88/ t.

In October 2018, the price of wheat was driven up to £203.92/ t–a 52.3 percent increase – but bread prices rose by only 6.7 per cent over the same period to stand at £ 1.42/ kg.