Second lockdown looms if Scots keep breaking rules

●Sturgeon’s warning and ‘anxiety’ as cases of coronavirus continue to rise

Nicola Sturgeon has warned the Scottish public that it could be faced with a second lockdown over winter if people continue to flout the rules and guidance designed to stop the spread of Covid-19.

The First Minister urged the public to talk to their family and friends about following the corona virus guidance and said she was feeling a “greater sense of anxiety” around the position of Scotland in regards to the virus compared to the last few months.

In a stark change of emphasis at her daily coronavirus briefing, Ms Sturgeon underlined the “fragile position” she believes the countr y is in ahead of winter.

She warned a second lockdown was possible and it would be “very hard” to continue relaxing restrictions if guidance continued to b e broken, particularly around indoor gatherings.

Daily recorded cases of Covid-19 rose to 160 yesterday, t he highest since 16 May and an increase on the 123 announced on Sunday.

However, the rise is not being matched by a rise in the rate of positive cases, which stands at around 1 percent–a statistic which Ms

Sturgeon said she used as a gauge for the success of the measures tasked with continuing the suppression of the virus.

The First Minister said the rise “concerned” her and the Scottish Government were taking it “very seriously”.

At the end of her briefing, Ms Sturgeon noted the “really dark moments” during the Covid-19 pandemic and said she had “tried to be frank” with the Scottish people during her daily briefings.

The First Minister said she was now the most worried she has been in the past couple of months, and appealed to people to continue following the Covid-19 guidance.

She said: “There is literally not a single day since I think 1 March this year where I have not pored over Covid statistics, considered the Scottish Government’s response and made really difficult decisions about how we try to keep it under control.

“There are not many days that I have not stood here and shared our thinking and conclusions with you.

“There have been some really dark moments along the way since the start of March and more recently there have been moments of greater hope and optimism and I have always tried to be frank with you about my assessments and feelings about the situation that we are in.

“Which is why I feel able to say to you today and I feel it is important to say to you that I feel a greater sense of anxiety today than I have done at any time probably for the last couple of months.

“We are in a fragile po sition. We have substantially lifted the lo ckdown restric - tions, but in doing so we have allowed this virus opportunities to spread and we are trying to keep it under control now.

“Not by very restrictive lockdown, but by all of us doing the right thing and having Test and Protect and local health protection teams coming in to contain outbreaks when they happen.”

Ms Sturgeon warned that lock down may return over winter as it will be “very hard” to keep the virus under control unless the guidance is followed to the letter.

The First Minister urged the public to pass on the warning to friends and family breaking the rules, which she said was “vital” to avoid a repeat of lockdown.

She said: “But unless all of us do the right things, that will be very hard to do on a continuous basis over the weeks and months ahead, particularly as we get into winter.

“I end by asking everybody again to think very carefully about how you’re living your lives at the moment.

“I take no pleasure in asking you to do that, but it is vital.

“None of us want to live our lives in this way, but by doing that if we keep the virus under control, we are avoiding a much worse outcome which is going back to the more restrictive situation that we saw earlier in the year.

“If there are people you know in your families, your friends, groups in your work network who are not doing all of these things, perhaps take the opportunity just to appeal to them to change their ways. We will succeed or fail here in beating this virus collectively and the behaviour of each and every one of us really matters to the well-being of all of us.”

A total of 69 of the 160 new cases announced yesterday were linked to Greater Glasgow and Clyde, with 27 in Lanarkshire, while the total number of confirmed cases in Scotland since the beginning of the pandemic is sitting at 20,478.

Ms Sturgeon also confirmed another day of no deaths from Covid-19, meaning the number of fatalities remains at 2,494.

The First Minister added not all of the new cases were linked to larger outbreaks, saying the rise of cases in Greater Glasgow and Clyde “seems to reflect a number of small clusters, rather than one or two more significant outbreaks”.

She said an incident management team was looking at a cluster of 22 cases in Ayrshire and Arr an, many of which she said “seem to be linked to indoor gatherings that took place the previous weekend”.

A cluster in Hawick in the Borders had increased to 15 people, she added, with a mobile testing unit in place in the town, and there are now 188 cases linked to the 2 Sisters food processing plant in Coupar Angus.

Yesterday Scotland continued to take further steps out of lockdown, with the opening of gyms and indoor swimming pools and the resumption of youth groups such as Cubs and Brownies and mother and baby groups.

The First Minister said “many people” had been looking forward to gyms and pools reopening, adding the move would be a“major relief for people who work in the leisure centre ”.

She said :“There opening is a further welcome step in getting back to normal, it is imp or tant for wider health and wellbeing.

“But it also obviously brings risks, there is no getting away from that, and that is why we have delayed this until now.”

Ms Sturgeon added: “The figures we are seeing just now for new cases demonstrate very clearly that this virus is still present across the country, it will spread rapidly if it gets the chance.”

She warned Covid-19 was still “immensely dangerous for some people” and urged people to “continue to make sure you are not doing any thing that gives the virus the chance to spread”.

“Think very carefully about how you’re living your lives at the moment. I take no pleasure in asking you to do that but it is vital”

NICOLA STURGEON

Given Scotland’s children are back in schools and shops have re-opened, it may feel to some like Scotland has won the war against Covid-19 with little more than the mopping up of the last viral insurgents left to do.

Nicola Sturgeon spoke of how she had studied the coronavirus statistics every day since 1 March, experiencing “some really dark moments” along the way but, more recently, experiencing a period of “greater hope and optimism”.

However, yesterday that mood changed once again as she said she felt it was “important to say to you that I feel a greater sense of anxiety today than I have done at any time probably for the last couple of months”, adding that Scotland was in a “fragile position”.

Some may dismiss anything the First Minister says but there are concrete reasons why everyone needs to pay attention to what she is saying.

In countries all over the world – including ones praised for their response to the pandemic – Covid cases have started rising once more and politicians are having to face up to a horrendous decision: if a second wave hits, should the country go into lockdown again, despite what we know about the effects on the economy and health, or just let the disease kill thousands more people and also cause significant economic damage. For her part, Sturgeon warned a second lockdown was possible, adding that it would be “very hard” to continue to open up the country if people keep breaking the guidelines.

According to figures from Johns Hopkins University, more than 846,000 people have now died from Covid worldwide, more than 25 million people have been infected and the number of cases is still rising – rapidly in some countries. So a sudden resurgence in Scotland would not be a surprise.

The lockdown has been hard on many people and, as a nation, we are weary of it. The desire to blow off steam is understandable, but we need to face up to the fact that the danger is still present. And the best way to deal with it is to stick to social distancing, wash hands, wear face masks, avoid crowded places, and self-isolate and arrange a test if you have symptoms. If the vast majority of people do this and the authorities quickly clamp down on any localised flare-ups, then Scotland has a chance to avoid having to decide whether to return to lockdown or, almost unthinkably, let the virus run its course.