Indyref2 ‘ hard to avoid’ in next two years, says Curtice
● Supreme Court ‘ could allow a vote without approval from Westminster’
Polling expert Sir John Curtice has said an independence referendum would be “difficult to avoid” in the next t wo or three years if the SNP win an outright majority at next year’s Holyrood elections.
The politics professor from the University of Strathclyde said if such a result does occur, “precedent” around both the 2 014 i ndep e ndence r e f e r - endum and the 2016 vote on membership of the European Union would make it difficult for the UK government to block Indyref2.
He said the timing of the referendum was also out of the hands of politicians, and that it would only happen in a “postpandemic world”.
Prof Curtice said i n a TV inter view: “At the moment one has to say that the SNP are well ahead in the opinion polls for next May. They certainly have a better than 50 per cent chance of being able to get an overall majority. If that does happen, I think it will be difficult to avoid another referendum within shall we say a twoor three- year time period.”
He told BBC Newsnight the use of the “once in a generation” argument may not hold the weight opponents hope. He said arguments which provided the government with mandates for the EU referendum and the original independence referendum would be contradicted if the SNP win.
He s a i d: “The a rg ument that the UK government and many other Unionists along
side them have been making … is indeed that the SNP in their view promised that the 2014 referendum was going to be a once- in- a- generation event and they should stick to that.
“The trouble with that argument, however, is while you might want to argue that your opponent should keep what you think were their promises, you cannot assume that the electorate have to be bound by those promises.
“If the SNP do go into the Holyrood elections saying, ‘ We want another referendum just like 2014’, that’s what you’re voting for, and if they get an overall majority in that election then the truth is the question the UK government will have to face is if that isn’t adequate evidence that a referendum would be held, then what would be?”
He said the Supreme Court might allow an independence
referendum forced through by the Scottish Parliament without the UK government’s agreement.
Prof Curtice also warned that Unionist suggestions to agree an independence deal with the UK government prior to any vote could make the case and likelihood of independence a “much more concrete prospect”.