No- deal: What will it mean for Scotland?
The prospect of a no- deal Brexit has moved a step closer after Boris Johnson put the country on alert to prepare for such a scenario.
Talks with t he EU l eaders on a trade deal are now "over", according to Downing Street.
Although j ust over t wo months r e mains f or t he impasse to be resolved, the outlook is bleak. It will mean tariffs on the export of goods and extensive regulator y checks on goods crossing the Channel.
Even before the Covid pandemic struck, the Scottish Government had undert aken s cenario planning that suggested the economy could contract by anywhere up to 2.5 per cent to 7 per cent under a no- deal scenario, with the loss of up to 100,000 jobs. That prospect will only worsen if the the country is faced a with a nodeal arrangement coupled with all the ongoing impact of fresh coronavirus shutdowns.
Exports crossing the chan
nel at the short straits from Dover will be worst hit, with some estimates suggesting that up to 60 per cent of current flow will face significant disruption on day one, rising to up to 70 per cent within three months.
There is the prospect of markets for Scottish seed potatoes being completely closed off.
And Scotland’s £ 117 billion service industry, including financial ser vices l argely based in Edinburgh, would face disruption and barriers to trade, with £ 5bn of service exports to the EU. Scotland would be a third- country service provider