If you think Donald Trump’s defeat is certain, then you are sadly mistaken
Addressing his base at a rally in Florida, with few masks and little social distancing on display, President Donald Trump said, “I feel so powerful. I’ll walk in there. I’ll kiss everyone in that audience. I’ll kiss the guys, and the beautiful women, and the… everybody. I’ll just give you a big fat kiss.” The rally ended with the song, YMCA, the anthem of the LGBTQ community!
Reflecting a campaign focused on Covid-19, Joe Biden struck a more sombre note in Cincinnati, Ohio, when he said, “how many empty chairs are there around the dinner tables because of his (Trump’s) negligence”.
To his base, Trump is pure entertainment and reassurance, a symbol of resistance to liberal America, a lightning-rod for their grievances, and a powerful ally in ‘making America white again’. The President hopes this mix will win him a second term, but as the clock runs down and Joe Biden continues to build and consolidate his lead in the polls, should Trump prepare for a requiem or is there a path to victory in this politically dysfunctional country?
The surprising defeat of Hillary Clinton in 2016 still haunts the Democratic Party and helps explain their cautious approach, taking nothing for granted and mindful of the recent poll findings from the Pew Research Centre that 92 per cent of Trump’s 2016 support was holding firm, but with fewer “seniors, older women and suburban voters” staying loyal.
Biden holds an increasing lead on two key issues, the coronavirus, and the prospect of unifying the country. With only 14 days before election day, more than 15 million Americans have already voted. In Wisconsin, Virginia, South Dakota and California, the figures for early voting are at record levels and surpassing by large margins the figures for the same point in 2016.
US polling covers presidential approval ratings, the general election, swing states, the pandemic, Senate and House seats and Governor races. Trump’s approval ratings remain around 44 per cent and have done for much of his presidency. Only on the economy, does the President poll positively, around 54 per cent. In a new Abc/washington Post nationwide poll, Biden was leading Trump by 12 points and in the key battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina, Biden’s lead ranged from four to ten percentage points.
One key pollster, Fivethirtyeight, predicts that the Democrats will win control of the Senate, gaining four seats, strengthen Democratic control of the House of Representatives by gaining eight seats, with the Republicans gaining another Governor. In terms of the presidential race, they predict victory for Biden with 319 electoral college votes against 219 for Trump.
In a recent Abc/ipsos poll of Trump’s handling of the pandemic, only 35 per cent of Americans approved, with 76 per cent of Republicans, down from 90 per cent, and only five per cent of Democrats, down from 25 per cent.
Over the last six months Biden’s polling has been consistent, but in recent weeks, helped by Trump's handling of the pandemic, the lead has increased.
An obvious question is, how do Biden’s polls compare with Clinton at the same point in 2016. They are better than Clinton at her peak, with Biden’s numbers bigger and more consistent. He has not trailed in a single live-interview poll this entire year.
The bigger question is, how accurate are the polls, how reliable, after their misreading of the contest in 2016. There is some indication that Trump supporters are avoiding political polls and that the Trump vote is being under-recorded. The president also appears to be making small inroads into the Hispanic Catholic vote. In tight races, this could be an issue.
Faced with an electoral mountain to climb and the clock running down, the political dynamic of a “normal” country would suggest that Trump cannot win. But Trump’s America is not normal, and neither is he.
Trump has an enthusiastic, some would say fanatical base, who will vote. Democratic voters, especially minorities, seem less enthused. Without increasing the turnout, Biden has a problem. This is exacerbated by the suppression of mainly black voters, being carried out on an industrial scale, by the Republican Party in more than 25 states of America. In Georgia, the leading voter suppression state, people are waiting in line for up to eight hours to vote!
A political relic of the 18th century, the Electoral College is Trump’s most important asset, providing an unfair and disproportionate benefit to the Republican Party and therefore the President.
Cultural wars distort traditional politics and turn elections into struggles about identity, dignity, fear, anger, hate and intolerance. Many different Americas compete, platforms for debate are destroyed, and any idea of national unity and the common good become victims of a country tearing itself apart. The transactional Trump is a dangerous predator in this human jungle.
Deliberately cloaking the elections in chaos and confusion, the President has provided himself with a range of legal challenges, disputed votes, and court action. Amidst this mayhem, he intends to sow doubts and fears over alleged wrongdoing and ballot rigging, to delegitimise the ballot and to enable him to contest defeat.
For the President, the election is not about the future of America, but about the future of the many significant special interests that form the transactional web that Trump has spun over America. Disparate groups will come together, in this flawed democracy, to claim their rewards. Each of them requires a different fix and Trump is the dealer or “Don”.
Nearing the end of the campaign, the President is at his most dangerous because he is desperate. There is nothing he will not do to escape the humiliation of being a one-term president.
Trump will not go quietly and although unlikely, he could still win.