Is Biden’s win already persuading Johnson to rat on Brexiteer allies?
They say that rats are always quick to leave a sinking ship; and it strikes me that this is one moment in world history when they could do us all a favour by getting on with the job, as fast as possible.
The sinking ship, of course, is Donald Trump’s presidency of the United States, holed beneath the waterline by what looks increasingly like a sub - stantial electoral victor y for his opponent Joe Biden, and now fur ther discredited by the President’s dangerous and grace - less refusal to concede defeat, and allow a peaceful democratic transition.
That Trump still has the power to a great deal of damage bet ween now and Januar y is not in doubt; many Americans fear that in a nation now armed to the teeth, par ticularly on Trump’s side of the question, the coming transition will almost inevitably involve at least some violence.
Yet it seems cer tain that his tumultuous presidency is going down, and will soon slide beneath the waves of histor y; and with it goes a whole raft of assumptions about the trajector y of world politics – from the inevitable rise of right-wing populism, through the imminent collapse of post-war global institutions, to the irreversibly malign influence of social media – that have been the talk of the planet since his unexpected victor y in 2016.
Small wonder, then, that the number of political figures prepared to back Trump in denying Biden’s victor y is dwindling fast; and among those making a rap - id depar ture from Trump’s side, none is more striking than the British Prime Minister B oris Johnson, who was happy enough to act as an outrider for Trumpian right-wing populism during the 2016 EU referendum campaign and subse - quent battles over Brexit – drawing on advice from the same transatlantic pool of far-right data-miners and opinion manipulators – but who now sees that st yle of politics rejected by a clear majorit y of American voters.
It may, of course, strike some people as disobliging to refer to the present Prime Minister as a rat; par ticularly those who remain beguiled by his alleged Etonian charm. In truth, though, it has to be acknowledged that Johnson is a notorious rat, on many counts; a serial love - rat, and a political oppor tunist who ratted on his previous pro -European sentiments to lead the 2016 Leave campaign.
His recent attempt to rat on his own EU Withdrawal Agreement by passing the now-notorious UK Internal Market Bill led last week to the biggest government defeat in the House of Lords for more than 20 years.
And he is already well-known – not least to the former Obama staffer who
called him “a shape -shifting creep” – as an inveterate political chameleon; at one moment the genial, liberal and freedomloving mayor of London, at the next the ruthless right-wing operator cruising a tide of xenophobic sentiment to become the leader of a government that is still bizarrely congratulating itself on “ending freedom of movement” for 66 million Britons.
It should therefore surprise no - one if Johnson’s first instinct, on obser ving the Biden win, is to sense which way the wind is blowing, and to star t tr ying to divest himself of those far-right connections that may now be more of a hindrance than a help.
Indeed there are already signals that the Biden administration will play hardball with Johnson’s government, not only over any possible impact of a hard Brexit on Ireland and the Nor thern Irish peace process, but over the general question whether the US really needs a trade deal with a UK which has just deliberate - ly undermined its trading relationship with its 27 closest neighbours.
The question remains, of course, whether the political forces now surrounding Johnson, and in large par t strengthened and empowered by him, will actually permit him to rever t to a more genial and co - operative t ype of centre -right politics.
The parliamentar y Tor y Part y, for example, is already rife with small rebellious groups arguing for a more Trumpian approach to the pandemic – riding a wave of anti-mask and anti-lockdown sentiment in some sections of British societ y – or for a Conser vative Par t y that would drop its recent commitment to liberal values such as LGBT rights, in favour of an American-st yle “culture wars” approach.
And this week’s shenanigans in Downing Street – which ended in the imminent depar ture of Johnson’s communications chief Lee Cain, a 2016 Leave campaign alumnus close to Dominic Cummings – may well also signal tensions in the PM’S inner circle, now brought to a head by the change of mood across the Atlantic.
Yet in some ways, of course, the sheer pressure of pandemic politics has already pushed Johnson back towards the kind of centre -right ground where he perhaps feels most comfor table – heap - ing lavish sentimental praise on the NHS, bailing out the nation with massive public borrowing, and generally, if often belatedly, heeding scientific advice on the need for stringent measures to reduce the spread of infection.
And if Johnson can now get away with ratting on Trumpism, and make Biden his unwitting ally in beating back the forces of reactionar y extremism in his own par t y, then he will have pulled off one of the greatest escapes of his career so far; and may yet, as a result, become a far more formidable opponent both to Keir Starmer’s Labour Par t y, and to the SNP – both par ties of the centre -left that have come to rely on the Prime Minister’s ugly flir tation with the far right to do their work for them in making the case for change, and that may have to sharpen up their arguments, if Johnson is ever able to declare that love -affair well and truly over.
Trumpian right-wing populism may no longer be a good look for the PM, writes Joyce Mcmillan
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