In condemnation and praise of Boris Johnson
The UK has shown a total inability to negotiate in a professional, low-key, unemotional way, writes Lesley Riddoch
At the eleventh hour, important things about Brexit are finally being said. Too late.
The clever money suggests trade talks will continue in Brussels beyond last night’s ‘final deadline’. But there’s not much optimism that real progress is being made – neither side wants to be seen as the one that walked away.
Indeed, the comments made by Boris Johnson this weekend reveal only the enduring depths of denial and incomprehension about the European project that have bedevilled the British side from the start.
The Prime Minister’s determination to speak to Macron and Merkel was almost embarrassing in its neediness and naivety. Somehow Boris thought that if he could sidestep the negotiators and talk turkey with the ‘Big Two’ – heavyweight to heavyweight – they would see sense, fudge a compromise and chuck both their long-established process and carefully chosen negotiators sous le bus.
Quite apart from the fact Johnson’s much vaunted charm works best on those socialised to accept orders from old Etonians, such a ménage à trois was never going to happen for one simple reason. It breaches procedure. Boris spends his life avoiding, re-writing and breaching procedure. The EU spends its life creating, monitoring and abiding by procedures. Its negotiators are not monkeys to be discourteously bypassed in the all-important search for organ grinders. So, Johnson’s clumsy attempt to set up private calls with the French and German leaders before talks with the EU Commission President was doomed to fail, weaken his hand and recveal much about the destructive legacy of first past the post politics in Britain.
Long, combative, non-consensual centuries in the Commons and decades of watching the EU negotiate actual deals have all taken their toll. Arrogance-inducing, absolute Commons majorities (based on minorities of the popular vote) have removed even the need for dialogue with other party leaders –commonplace in most Pr-deploying EU member states. The British system claims to deliver “strong and stable government”, but actually provides no opportunity to develop or practice negotiating skills. The result is a political class which believes trading partners can easily be flipped, cajoled, blackmailed or scared into submission. Johnny no pals.
Under Boris Johnson, that’s what Britain has become – though to be fair, Britain’s “winner takes all” system leaves every Prime Minister susceptible to the God Complex, especially those with a guid conceit of themselves after years of ego-priming at Eton.
It’s been a long time coming, but Boris Johnson finally experienced his Emperor’s Clothes moment, when he met but could not charm, overwhelm or bypass Ursula von der Leyen. Now, there is nowhere left for the Prime Minister to go. The problem for mere mortals – especially Remain-voting Scots – is that this inexperienced politician and non-negotiator will take us all with him.
Strange that it’s taken so long for critics to cut to the heart of Britain’s negotiating dilemma.
On Sky’s Sophie Ridge programme yesterday, Spain’s Foreign Minister Arancha González said the UK wants the trade deal to do something it's not designed to do; “A trade deal manages interdependence – it’s not a way to declare independence.”
An angry Ed Miliband on the Andrew Marr programme said much the same thing. Rejecting the presenter’s repeated suggestion that sovereignty is at stake in the current trade talks, the former Labour leader said; “A country exercises sovereignty by choosing to enter trade talks – after that it’s just completing the process of agreeing a deal.”
Quite.
Somehow, during trade talks with Japan, the British Government managed to get off its high horse and accept tougher restrictions on state aid than those being proposed by the “sovereignty-busting” EU right now.
Of course, the Japanese bilateral agreement was more memorable for “tariff wins” on products the UK doesn’t actually export. As one wag tweeted, the British negotiating triumph was the equivalent of winning a KlingonSwahili dictionary in a raffle. Even the Treasury’s assessment of the deal’s potential boost to GDP was just 0.07 per cent. Whoop, whoop.
But that highlights the problem. Even on a semi-good day, the UK team doesn’t reach standard negotiating skills.
With Boris “Get Brexit Done” Johnson added to the mix, the result has been a total inability to negotiate in a professional, lowkey, unemotional way.
That’s why Britain is in a uniquely bad position.
There’s no point looking enviously at countries like Norway. Our Nordic neighbour does indeed sit outside the institutions of the EU (like the Common Fisheries Policy) but enjoys full access the single market. Why – because it paid the price.
Norway’s better deal isn’t the product of favouritism but because the country chose to join the EEA “Halfway House”, accept the four acquis (including freedom of movement) and pays an annual 9 billion Euros to the EU. Still, this is still generally seen as a good deal – not a “surrender of sovereignty” – because 80 per cent of Norwegian fish exports end up in the EU.
It’s not inspiring or high-minded, it’s a win-win trade deal - the kind Britain could have explored if Boris Johnson and others hadn’t emotionally turbo-charged the issue of trade with the EU right from the start.
It’s a shame much of the weekend’s straight talking didn’t happen much earlier? That’s partly due to Labour’s antipathy towards the EU under Jeremy Corbyn and the party’s enduring fear of antagonising northern Brexit supporters. But it’s mostly because the end was not nigh.
It is now.