Return to post-covid normality a long way off, vaccine experts warn

Up to 90 per cent of the population may need to receive the Covid-19 vaccination before Scots can begin to look forward to a return to normality, MSPS have been told.

And vaccine experts warned this may be a “long way off ”, with factors such as uptake and the approval of other vaccines set to play a role.

Holyrood's Covid-19 committee heard yesterday that the prospect of a so-called "herd immunity" effect – as the vaccine is widely dispersed – is unlikely to have any impact in the early months of next year.

Experts from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), which advises on priorities for vaccination roll- out, as well as the Medicines & Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHR A) were among those giving evidence remotely to the committee.

Liberal Democrat MSP Beatrice Wishart asked how many people would have to be vaccinated "before it's safe to reduce any restrictions”.

Professor Wei Shen Lim, chair of Covid -19 Immunisation, JCVI, said the vaccine would need to be widely dispensed before this could happen.

"It's generally estimated that if a vaccine was highly effective in blocking transmission – maybe 70, 80 or 90 per cent effective in blocking transmission – then, given the transmissibility of this coronavirus, one might need to vaccinate up to 70 or 80 per cent of the population," he said.

"That's one estimate that's been given. This is the herd immunity.

"It's very high level of vaccine uptake that will be required to completely stop transmission of the virus through the population."

The vaccine roll-out got under way in Scotland last week.

More than 18,000 people north of the B order have received the first of the two-jab inoculation.

Professor Andrew Pollard, of Oxford Vaccine Group, whose candidate vaccine is with regulators awaiting approval, said that, as the vaccine is rolled out, transmission levels will fall.

He described the "herd immunity" effect as increasing the level of the population protected to the point where the virus can no longer transmit.

“That's a much bigger ask then being able to show some impact on transmission of the virus," he said.