Constitution set to dominate Scotland’s political battlefield yet again in 2021
Scotland is gearing up for another political rollercoaster in 2021.
The battle for the country' s constitutional future, the fallout of Holyrood's Alex Salmond inquiry and the prospect of a US presidential visit should ensure no let-up in the volatility of the past decade.
The political ramifications of the coronavirus pandemic will also be critical amid hopes for some kind of return to normality later in the year as vaccine roll-out ramps up.
The Scottish Parliament election on May 6 is likely to be the focal point of the political year.
The constitutional future of Scotland is poised to dominate the campaign, with Nicola Sturgeon insisting it will be a de facto vote on the country's right to stage another referendum on leaving the UK.
According to pro-independence campaigners, a Nationalist majority would be the catalyst for a repeat of the 2014 referendum on Scotland's right to leave the UK, according to proindependence campaigners.
Ms Sturgeon has been demanding another referendum since the Brexit vote in 2016, which saw almost twothirds of Scots vote to remain in the EU, but the weight of votes south of the Border swung the outcome in favour of Leave.
Currently polling makes sweet reading for the SNP, which is sitting on about 55 per cent and on course to win not just a majority of seats but an unprecedented majority of the popular vote.
Constitutional issues are reserved to the UK Government under the devolution set-up and Boris Johnson has ruled out any prospect of a transfer of power that would allow such a vote to take place. The pressure would grow on him if the SNP secures a Holyrood majority.
Ms Sturgeon would also come under pressure under such a stand- off from many on her own side to press ahead with a referendum under the auspices of the Scottish Parliament and allow the courts to decide the matter.
The election will also be the first major test of new Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross.
He will seek to shift the focus onto the SNP'S handling of domestic issues, particularly the Covid-19 pandemic amid
questions over testing, vaccine roll-out and deaths in care homes.
But polling evidence so far suggests the main opposition party in Scotland is falling behind its 2016 result, a high point for the Tories during devolution.
It is also likely to be a makeor-break moment for Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard, who was able to see off demands from a group of his MSPS to resign earlier in the year amid plunging poll ratings for the party.
One issue that could prove damaging for the SNP is the fall-out of the inquiry into the Scottish Government' s handling of complaints against Mr Salmond.
The SNP Government was forced to pay out more than £500,000 in legal fees to the former first minister after he brought a legal challenge and won his case against against the government he formerly led, which was found to have acted illegally.
The inquiry has been blighted by claims from the committee of MSPS staging it about a lack of co-operation from the government.
Both Ms Sturgeon and Mr Salmond will give evidence in January. The committee is expected to issue a report before the election.
Ms Sturgeon will, of course, be fully occupied with her response to the pandemic. It is hoped that more vaccines will be approved, which could ramp up inoculation levels and hasten a return to normality, but the situation remains fluid.
Scotland could also have a visit from the new US president Joe Biden, who is due to be inaugurated in January. Mr Biden has been invited to the COP26 climate change summit, which will bring global leaders to Glasgow in October in a bid to agree global action to tackle the looming climate crisis. The summit had been scheduled for last November but was delayed because of the pandemic.
Mr Biden is keen to reverse the sceptical approach to the climate change issue adopted by the US under Donald Trump. The incoming president has already pledged to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement, which his predecessor pulled the US out of. Mr Biden may see a trip to the Glasgow summit as the the ideal platform to parade his climate credentials.
Controversial new measures aimed at cracking down on hate crime in Scotland are also likely to provoke further controversy when they come before MSPS to be passed in law.
Justice Secretary Humza Yousaf has already pledged to amend measures in the Hate Crime Bill following an outcry over proposals to create a new offence of "stirring up hatred", which critics fear will stifle freedom of expression. But opponents say concerns remain that Mr Yousaf hasn't gone far enough.
A proposed crackdown on domestic abuse in Scotland is also expected to be passed at Holyrood next year.
The Domestic Abuse (Protection) Bill would allow a court to place a Domestic Abuse Protection Order on a named individual for up to three months. Such an order would stop the person from entering the prescribed domestic setting.
A showdown is looming between estate sin Scotland and the government at Holyrood over plans to introduce a strict licensing regime for grouse moors. Legislation will be introduced after self-regulation by the industry had failed, along with the government’s previous attempts, to suppress persecution of birds of prey.
A second Holyrood bid to cap excessive rent hikes for private tenants will also come before MSPS next year.