How Biden can boost Scotland and sway Indy debate
Of the 46 Presidents of the United States, 34 have Scottish ancestry including Washington, Roosevelt, Clinton, and Trump.
Unfortunately, Joe Biden does not. Instead, his roots, ancestry and heritage are Irish. Often referencing Seamus Heaney and other writers in his speeches, Biden’s roots stretch back to the, “Blewitts of County Mayo and the Finnegans of County Louth”.
Scots can take some comfort from the Celtic connection and the new alliances Scotland is building with Ireland.
Setting aside the importance to the Scottish economy, of the new US administration scrapping the punitive 25 per cent tariff on whisky, which may or may not happen in Biden’s first 100 days, the new president’s relationship with the United Kingdom and Boris Johnson could have a more significant short-term impact on Scotland and the simmering debate on the constitutional future of the Union.
Despite much speculation, there is little evidence to suggest that Biden will take a position on Scottish independence. Biden has enormous foreign affairs experience, having spent 36 years in the US Senate and eight years as vice-president, and is unlikely to weigh in on the issue. This does not mean that the significant Scottish Caucus on Capitol Hill, our extensive diaspora in the US, and elements of the US administration, will remain silent on an issue of such historical and emotional significance to them.
The President’s love of Ireland and our Prime Minister’s lack of respect for the island of Ireland, illustrated by threats of international law breaking and the undermining of the “Good Friday”, agreement, have only served to weaken any prospect of a warm personal relationship developing between Johnson and Biden.
These soft issues matter! Misjudging the mood of America and underestimating the strength and solidarity of the Irish American community could have serious consequences for the UK and, in turn, Scotland’s membership of the Union. Brexit is an act of self- destruction with potentially catastrophic consequences. Boris Johnson is vulnerable. In his desperate search for a Brexit consolation prize in the form of an economic and trade lifeline with America, which made little sense even in the Trump era, he now faces a new President with different priorities, a vast agenda, outlined in his Lincoln Memorial speech, and the immediate need to dismantle the damage done to the US and its allies in the last four years.
The US does not need a trade deal with the UK. As reported in the New York Times, Biden is reluctant to enter new trade agreements with anybody until he deals with domestic employment and investment issues.
There are more important trade deals for America to pursue. China, the EU, after the collapse of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), Asia Pacific, are judged to be more important than a deal with the UK. The Biden Presidency will also embrace the Obama doctrine, that the UK is only one of many US “special relationships”. The UK, including Scotland, could pay a price for Johnsons embrace of populism, his apparent contempt for all things Irish and his barely concealed admiration of Trump.
Biden could be instrumental in bursting the delusional bubble in which the UK now finds itself and may help to bring some purpose and realism to this plausible, but deceitful idea of, “Global Britain”. If Brexit and Johnson prove to be a disaster it will only stoke the fires of discontent in Scotland and strengthen the resolve to leave the Union.
There is one significant issue that will work positively and immediately to Scotland’s benefit. President Biden’s enthusiastic embrace of the Climate Change agenda and the Green Revolution provides a significant boost for a country like Scotland, where significant progress has been made. Biden’s presence at the United Nations Climate Change conference in Glasgow later this year will further enhance Scotland’s reputation and standing on the world stage.
Trump came to Scotland to play golf, but Biden will come to Scotland to save the planet!