PWC outlines expected Scots GDP growth
Scotland’s economy could grow by up to 4.6 per cent this year, as it begins to recover from the slump created by Covid-19, but could take until 2024 to bounce back fully, PWC is predicting.
The accountancy giant in its latest UK Economic Outlook reportsaidthatafteranestimated drop of 10.6 per cent in gross domestic product (GDP) last year, the economy north of the Border is expected to grow by between 3.6 per cent and 4.6 per cent in gross value added (Gva)termsin2021,depending on the speed of the recovery.
It comes after provisional statistics released by the Scottish Government yesterday showed a 0.3 per cent fall in GDP from November. For the Ukasawhole,pwcbelievesthe UK economy will see negative growth in the first quarter of up to-2.8percent,anditforecastsa gradual return to growth from the second quarter, with Scotland’sreboundslightlyaheadof the UK, buoyed by the spread of its sectoral coverage.
Additionally, PWC projects that on average in 2021 the UK is expected to recover between 30percentand42percentofthe lossinoutputcausedbythepandemic – equivalent to between about £2,100 and £2,900 per household.scotlandisexpected to recover about 43 per cent of lost output from 2020 under a quick recovery scenario.
Stewart Wilson, head of government and public sector for PWC Scotland, commented:“weexpectgrowthtoreturn to the economy after a bumpy first quarter heavily impacted by the continuing lockdown. A slow recovery will see growth in Scotland of 3.6 per cent, and while this is ahead of the prepandemic growth rate, it must be remembered that we begin this recovery following a 10 per cent fall.”