Analysis: What does Salmond's new party mean for the SNP?

It took the SNP just 41 minutes after Alex Salmond began speaking to dismiss his new Alba Party and candidacy in the Holyrood elections as “the most predictable development in Scottish politics”.

Certainly anyone who thought Alex Salmond’s desire to be involved in Scottish politics had lessened, that he would be cowed after “three years of hell” as he has described the impact of facing sexual harassment allegations, court cases and parliamentary inquiries, and want to step back from public life, hasn’t been watching closely enough.

He was never going to exit stage right before a final act.

It’s been all too obvious for some time that any wish to return to the fold would be roundly rejected, and with a host of new pro-independence parties sprouting up as a result of the internal divisions within the SNP, it was surely only a matter of time for Salmond to join one of them.

He has plumped for the Alba Party. Established just two months ago by a retired television producer.

So far just four candidates have been announced to stand on the regional lists, but when candidate nominations close on Wednesday the plan is to have at least four in each of the eight parliamentary regions.

A super-majority for independence is, he says, the aim. To soak up the “wasted” votes for the SNP on the list and take them from the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and even Greens.

But will it work? Will Alba be the new Change UK?OR will it be, as he humbly alluded, more like Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche, which was catapulted to power a year after its founding?

The polls would say no. The SNP looks likely to be on course as a majority government, even if only just, by winning in the constituencies. Such is the volume of their support in actual seats, that it rules out their chances of picking up more MSPS via the list.

Salmond and others are right the Both Votes SNP strategy would be a waste of the million or so pro-independence votes, which are then redistributed to people’s second and third choices, which could include unionist parties.

Which is why the Scottish Greens are currently being predicted to return a record number of MSPS, with tactical voting seeing SNP supporters giving Patrick Harvie’s party their list votes.

Any more pro-indy parties on the ballot – especially one with as recognisable a figure as Alex Salmond at the helm – could eat into their vote share rather than damage the SNP in any way.

However, the polls also say that Alex Salmond is not as well-liked among the electorate as he once was.