Polling suggests Scottish Greens heading for record result at Holyrood
Pro-independence parties appear set for another five years of majority rule with the Scottish Greens sitting high in the polls on 10 per cent, likely guaranteeing another five years of constitutional backand-forth between the UK and Scottish Government.
Such a result for Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater’s party would see around ten Green MSPS returned to Holyrood – a record result for the party – and boost the pro-independence majority from razor-thin to clear.
However, following a poll earlier last week from Lord Ashcroft that indicated half of Green voters are against Scottish independence, the question of whether a vote for the Greens counts as a pro-independence vote when discussing mandates for a second referendum is far from clear..
Susan Hamilton lives in the Snp/liberal Democrat marginal of Edinburgh Western and is considering “lending” her constituency vote to the SNP on Thursday.
The 43-year-old mother of two was unequivocal, however, that while she was proindependence it was the climate emergency driving her to vote Green on the List.
She said: “It is climate over independence.
"Climate is the most important issue facing us today and they are the only party taking it seriously.
"I acknowledge that in voting for the Greens, indyref2 is something that might happen."
For Ms Hamilton, who is a Green party member, making progress of any sort on climate change is important and while she voted Yes in 2014, she says she is does not agree with “independence at all costs”.
She said: “I like the Green approach to independence. It is not independence at all costs. If you give most Greens the choice of doing good climate action or independence, I have confidence they would pick climate first.
"I would put myself down on the quiet pro-independence side. I would campaign on climate issues, but I probably would not be a huge Yes campaigner.”
Joe Dick, another Green
voter on the list, lives in the Labour/snp marginal of Edinburgh Central.
His constituency vote will be going to Labour, he said, not because he wants to put Anas Sarwar in a position of power, but because he does not like the SNP and wants to see a more diverse Holyrood. "It is a purely tactical decision to vote Labour,” he said. "The importance for that is to encourage a bit of plurality and not just have a monolithic party which scoops up all the constituencyseats. Ithinkwe can probably do better than that.”
Describing himself as a “reformed No voter”, Mr Dick says the Green approach to independence “tallies quite nicely” and the party’s approach to transphobia was key as it had been “one of the main reasons” stopping him from backing the SNP.
Environment, above everything else, was again the driver.
Mr Dick said: “I am not here for independence at all costs, so I am hedging my bets.
"The power for independence still rests with the people.
" There will be a pro-independence majority, so I don’t really feel like I am having much of a say in that. That feels like a foregone conclusion. That allows me to make a tactical decision on the constituency.”
Will Barber is another 2014 No voter who is now backing the Scottish Greens.
Previously a Labour voter who also voted Remain in 2016, the 36-year-old from Inverkeithing said Brexit and its impact had made him reevaluate things.
He said: “I agree with the
Greens’ policies on virtually everything. The Greens are very clear on independence, but I think they focus on other things. It is definitely climate change and a commitment to renewables that drives me to the Greens, rather than independence.”
Mr Barber is set to vote both votes Green in one of the handful of constituencies which has a constituency candidate from the party, with Mags Hall attempting to challenge SNP incumbent Annabelle Ewing.
For Mr Barber, however, his former allegiance with Anas Sarwar’s party could be revived if Labour changed its possibility on the constitution.
He said: “Anas Sarwar is very fresh in the job, but the things I hear Labour talking about, it is a clearer offer than they have had for a while, but I like the fact the Greens are looking at what sort of country Scotland could become.
"In Scotland the Labour Party are just not a force and I don’t agree with their wishywashy approach to the constitution. There is nothing from Labour as a party, there is no coherent message on it.
"If Scottish Labour came out tomorrow and said they were in favour of independence, I would consider voting for them.”
Yasmin Luqman lives in the tight Edinburgh Central constituency, won by the Conservatives in 2016 in a shock result for Ruth Davidson, where the Greens performed well and finished in third place with Alison Johnstone.
The 26-year-old NGO worker is a UK citizen, but spent her childhood in Seattle, has Yemeni heritage and is planning to vote on both ballots for the Greens.
For her, the Greens’ stance on the arms trade, its radical social policy and what she described as “hostility” from the UK Government towards immigrants is what drove her to the party.
On independence, Ms Luqman said she believes it is “integral” to tackling climate.
SNP on course for majority at Holyrood, latest poll suggests
Nicola Sturgeon is set to win a majority at the Scottish Parliament election on Thursday, according to a new poll.
The survey for the Herald by BMG Research suggests the SNP is set to win 68 seats while other projections show the Alba Party will take two seats, once the regional distribution of its support is taken into account.
Meanwhile, the poll suggests the Greens will pick up nine seats, meaning Holyrood would have 79 pro-independence MSPS out of 129.
Robert Struthers, head of polling at BMG, told the newspaper: "There is no question that the SNP will be returned as the largest party in Holyrood next week, but their prospect of a majority remains on a knife-edge.
"With little movement since our last poll in mid-march, there is no real evidence that any party has gathered sig
nificant momentum ahead of voters casting their ballots next week.
"Using a uniform seat calculator – a general guide of estimating how votes might translate into seats – our numbers suggest that the SNP could win a small majority of seven, thanks to a close to clean sweep of constituencies."
BMG polled 1,023 Scots aged 16 or over between April 27 and 30. It found the SNP will take a 28-point lead in the Holyrood constituency vote on 49 per cent, Labour on 21 per cent, the Scottish Conservatives on 19 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats on 9 per cent.
It said the SNP is on 37 per cent on the regional list, the Tories are on 22 per cent, Labour on 17 per cent, the Lib Dems on 8 per cent, the Greens on 9 per cent, Alba on 4 per cent, and Reform UK
on 1 per cent. The company's previous survey for the Herald, carried out between March 16 and 19, found the SNP would win 66 seats, the Tories 27, Labour 20, the Greens eight, and the Lib Dems eight.
Meanwhile, a separate poll for Scotland on Sunday found 34 per cent of voters believe the SNP has handled education well, with 39 per cent believing it was handled badly, giving the SNP a net rating of minus five.
The SNP was also found to have performed badly on crime at -4, with Brexit at -3 and housing policy at -1.
However, voters overall were pleased with the SNP'S record in government, according to the poll by Savanta Comres.
A total of 1,001 Scots aged 16 or over were interviewed between April 23 and 27 for the survey.
Alex Salmond said: "An SNP regional list vote is a wasted vote across Scotland and they are set to win zero list seats on Thursday.
"It is now vital that to ensure a big Supermajority, with independence supporters giving the SNP their constituency vote but backing Alba on the list.
"Today's polls show that the independence-supporting MSPS could potentially reach 80 or even more."
Scottish Conservative candidate Annie Wells said: "The fact is that a peach ballot for Labour is a wasted vote if you want to prevent an SNP majority and stop Indyref2.
"They have no hope of challenging the SNP on the regional list.
"So I'm asking everyone like me who grew up supporting Labour to lend the Scottish Conservatives their peach ballots."