Poll indicates SNP’S worst election result since first victory in 2007
lowest since an October 2019 poll by Panelbase.
Such a result would be “ultimately a dominant performance”, according to polling experts, and the figures should be viewed in the context of sky-high figures for the SNP towards the end of last year.
The poll interviewed 1,001 Scottish adults aged 16 or over between April 30 and May 4.
The results come in contrast to two polls reported on Tuesday that showed the SNP returning with a majority.
Research by Opinium, commissioned by Sky News, had the SNP on track to secure a slim majority of 67 seats, while a Yougov poll for The Times suggested the party was set to secure a four-seat majority.
Scots are, however, still broadly split over independence, with this survey the second in a row from Savanta Comres to measure a clear gap between Yes and No. Overall, 50 per cent of voters said they would vote No if a second independence referendum was held tomorrow, with 42 per cent saying they would vote Yes with a further 8 per cent undecided. With don’t knows excluded, the poll puts support for the union at 54 per cent and support for independence at 46 per cent.
Ms Sturgeon’s party received just 42 per cent of the constituency vote in the poll, which could be a cause of concern within SNP headquarters ahead of polling places opening on Thursday.
The party’s list vote of 34 per cent is just three points higher than what it received in 2007.
Such a result would see the SNP return 59 MSPS, down four on their 2016 result, with the list vote failing to make up for potential losses in the constituency.
However, the unionist parties are unlikely to make major gains despite this drop in SNP support. Conservatives are backed by 25 per cent of voters on the constituency ballot, with 22 per cent backing Douglas Ross’s party on the regional list, up two and one points respectively.
Anas Sarwar’s Labour is backed by 22 per cent and 19 per cent respectively, up one point on the constituency ballot and with no changes on the regional list.
If this poll is replicated in the results, Mr Ross is likely to lose one Mspand Labour would be strengthened with two additional MSPS. It is another strong poll for the Scottish Greens, with much of the ‘other’ support on the constituency ballot going to them.