SNP’S hopes of a majority ‘hang in the balance’ with top pollster giving them a ‘50/50’ chance
Professor Sir John Curtice has said the SNP’S chances of an overall majority at the Scottish Parliament elections tomorrow are 50/50 as another poll indicates a high level of support for Nicola Sturgeon’s party.
Thepollinggurusaidontwitter that polls “suggest 50/50 chance of SNP overall majority”, with the SNP set for 64 seats based on a uniform swing of votes.
His comments came as Ipsos Mori released their final Holyrood poll with STV, putting the
SNP’S constituency vote share at 50 per cent and their regional list vote share at 39 per cent.
The pollster said such a result would leave the SNP’S hopes of a majority “hanging in the balance”.
Their final poll, one of five published in the past 24 hours, could see the SNP return as many as 68 MSPS overall, but would require almost all of the marginalseatsheldbythescottish Conservatives or Scottish Labourtochangehandsonpolling day.
Douglas Ross’s party would likelyfinishinsecondplacewith 27 MSPS, with the poll estimating their support at 20 per cent
– unchanged from Ipsos Mori’s previous poll – on the constituencyvotewithastrongshowing ontheregionallistat23percent (up two points).
Scottish Labour would be set for a disappointing day despite theirconstituencyvoteshareof 22 per cent, a rise of four points, pushingthemintosecondplace in that part of the election.
Their regional list vote share of 18 per cent would likely leave them with just 19 MSPS, lower than their 2016 share.
The Scottish Greens’ regional vote share of 12 per cent would see them return a record 11 MSPS, with the Liberal Democrats (6 per cent constituency, 4 per cent regional list) set to return four MSPS.
Alba,alexsalmond’snewparty, is set to receive 2 per cent of the vote, according to this poll, which would leave them without any MSPS.
The poll also indicated the majority of voters had made theirdecisiononwhotovotefor, but with 12 per cent stating they may still change their mind on the constituency ballot and 14 percentstatingthesameonthe regional list, many votes could still change hands. Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, said: “Whether there will be a SNP majority or not hangs in the balance.”