Key questions as voting for the election gets under way
SNP dominance in Holyrood may be a foregone conclusion ahead of today’s vote, but there are still several important questions the result will answer.
Polls throughout the election campaign have placed the SNP on course to win – or narrowly miss out on – a slim Holyrood majority.
The key deciding factor between those outcomes is likely be voter turnout.
If Nicola Sturgeon’s party can get its supporters out in big numbers, seat projects suggest it will take several seats from opposition parties. More than one million people have already signed up for postal votes – a record – which could also have an influence on the result.
The debate over the timing of a second independence referendum may also well be answered by today’s vote.
If the SNP win a majority, the party will likely plough ahead with its proposal to hold a referendum within the next five years.
Even if the party does not win an outright majority, support from the Scottish Greens could still lend credibility to plans for a vote on independence in the life of the next Parliament.
But the job of opposition parties, fighting to prevent a fresh referendum in coming years, will find their job a lot easier if the SNP falls short.
Opposition parties have raised fears of the possibility of a “wildcat” referendum, which could be held without the consent of the Westminster government. However, during Tuesday night’s TV debate, Ms Sturgeon ruled out the possibility of such a poll.
She said: “I would not countenance an illegal referendum – not least because it would not deliver independence.”
While the SNP is almost certain to be the largest party after Thursday’s vote, there is still fierce competition between Scottish Labour and the Scottish Conservatives as to who
will take second place. After years of poor polling, Anas Sarwar’s brief tenure in the top job appears to have boosted Labour’s chances of reemerging as Scotland’s main opposition party.
Thelabourleaderhasstrong approval ratings – far higher than his Tory rival – but the party will have to gain a good handful of seats, rather than simply tread water, if it is to make up the ground it has lost over the past 20 years.
Other pro-independence parties – namely the Scottish
Greens, but also potentially Alex Salmond’s Alba party – are set to win seats and could join forces to work with the SNP in what the former first minister has called a “supermajority” – although neither will rival Scottish Labour or the Tories for second place.
Mrsalmondthrewaspanner in the works of the Holyrood election when he launched the all-list Alba Party in March.
Unionists and nationalists alike are wary of the toll Alba could take on seat tallies, but the party insists the electoral
arithmetic of backing it, instead of the SNP, will help deliver a “super-majority” of pro-independence parties in the Scottish Parliament.
In principle, the logic makes sense, since the SNP’S dominance in constituency votes means it returns just a handful of regional MSPS – but Ms Sturgeon has warned supporters that splitting their ballot risks letting her party fall short of a majority.
This election, Andy Wightman is a candidate for the Highlands and Islands region.
The ex-green Party MSP, who moved to the area last year, is standing in the race as an independent after stepping down from the Scottish Greens amid accusations there is a culture of “intolerance” and censorship within the party over the debate surrounding transgender and women’s rights.
But while he is one of Holyrood’s most high-profile MSPS, Mr Wightman may struggle to overcome stiff competition.