Economists say recovery under way – despite delay in easing restrictions

Scotland's economy is expected to return to its pre-coronavirus level in the summer of 2022, three months earlier than previously forecast.

Experts at the Fraser of Allander Institute at Strathclyde University said their forecasts for GDP growth had been revised upwards against the "positive backdrop" of the vaccinations allowing restrictions to be eased.

Back in March, economists there had forecast GDP would grow by 3.6 per cent this year, but this has now been upped so that growth of 5.9 per cent is expected over the course of 2021.

It also said that based on the latest figures" the scottish economyis slightly ahead of theuk' s overall in terms of its recovery".

The commentary, which is sponsored by Deloitte, stressed however that despite current optimism "forecasts at the moment are still very uncertain".

But the report said that the "recovery in the scottish economy is underway, despite recent delays in the easing of restrictions".

The Scottish Government had hoped to have been able to move all of the country to Level 0 - the lowest level of coronavirus restrictions - on June 28, but First Minister Nicola Sturgeon confirmed this week that this will not likely happen now till July 19.

But with restrictions having been relaxed somewhat already, and many Scots fully vaccinated, Fraser of Allander director Mairi Spowage said many were now "keen to spend their money in social settings".

She spoke out as the latest commentary said: "We have revised up our forecasts for the Scottish economy. We expect the economy will grow 5.9 per cent in 2021 and 3.5 per cent in 2022.

"We are now expecting that the economy will return the pre-pandemic levels in the summer of 2022, three months earlier than we were forecasting in March."

The report continued: "It's important that we don't forget how far we have come: the Scottish economy has seen significant opening up since late April. This is of course down to the incredible progress of the vaccine programme.

"Incredibly, we are now in the situation where 79 per cent of adults have had at least the first dose of a vaccine against Covid-19.”