Number of daily coronavirus cases in Scotland could reach 60,000 in April
The number of people being infected with Covid every day in Scotland could reach 60,000 by the middle of April, according to the latest official modelling.
A paper published by the Scottish Government also said that under a worst case scenario, this could translate into 6,000 people requiring hospital treatment.
The bleak predictions are contained in the latest Modelling the Epidemic paper which is intended to help ministers and public health officials plan how to respond.
Covid cases in Scotland have surged in the past few weeks, driven by the highly infectious BA.2 sub-variant of the Omicron strain, which now accounts for around 90 per cent of cases.
The number of people in hospital with the virus has hit a record high for four days in a row, with 2,322 requiring treatment on wards according to Thursday’s daily figures.
The volume of people testing positive has taken heavy toll on the NHS, with record numbers of people facing long waits at A&E and some health boards cancelling elective operations.
In the week up to March 22 an average of 6,000 NHS staff – about 3.4 per cent of the total workforce – were absent each day for Covid-related reasons.
On Wednesday, Covid hospitalisations reached a new record for the fourth day in a row, at 2,322. It also emerged that 240 people have died this year as a direct result of delays in A&E departments.
As pressure continues to mount on the health services, NHS Lanarkshire urged people not to attend A&E at its three acute hospitals – Monklands in Airdrie, Hairmyres in East Kilbride, and University Hospital Wishaw – unless they were in a “life-threatening” situation.
The Scottish Government paper says that the future trajectory of Covid infections, hospitalisations and deaths remains “uncertain”.
However, it estimates that daily infections may be as high as 60,000 in April, when current numbers of positive tests are adjusted to account for asymptomatic and undetected infections. It says this will lead to an increase in hospitalisations, with more than 6,000 patients needing beds under the worst case scenario, which could occur if rates of transmission increase.
Under the “central” scenario, which could occur if rates of transmission stay the same as now, it estimates that daily infections could reach 40,000 with 4,000 people hospitalised.
Earlier this week, Scotland’s Healthsecretaryhumzayousaf warned that the number of patients being treated for Covid in Scotland’s hospitals could keep rising for weeks.
He also revealed that some health boards have started cancelling people’s elective operations again as they struggle to cope with the number of new cases.
Nicola Sturgeon’s Cabinet is due to meet on Tuesday to decide whether to lift the rule on face masks, which currently have to be worn in public spaces such as shops and on public transport.
The law is expected to be converted into official guidance from 4 April, with the Scottish Government still recommending that people take the precaution.
The Scottish Government has been approached for comment.