Temperature threshold set to be breached
◆ Transition to low-carbon future is moving too slow in the face of climate disaster, argues Dr Richard Dixon
Globally, 2023 was the warmest year ever recorded, likely 1.4 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times. Climate scientists tell us we must avoid going over a 1.5C temperature increase to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
Last year was also the warmest for Wales and Northern Ireland, the second warmest in England and, in Scotland, the third warmest after 2022 and 2014. This means that nine of the top-ten warmest years in Scotland have been since 2000, with 1997 the only one earlier.
Temperature records for Scotland go back to 1884. The average annual temperature in the records is 7.2C – 2023 came in at 8.3C. Last year also saw the warmest June ever recorded, the second warmest February, and the third warmest September. The difference between the coolest year, in 1892, and the warmest year in 2022 is 2.8C.
A fairer comparison is to look at the average for the first 20 years in the temperature record and the most recent ten years, which shows a temperature rise of 1.3C. I am using only ten of the most recent years because temperatures are now changing so quickly.
So – even though global warming caused by fossil fuels and deforestation started in the mid-1700s, and recent changes in ocean currents mean that Scotland is not warming as fast as many other parts of the world – we have still nearly reached that crucial 1.5C temperature threshold. On rainfall, the records go back to 1836 and show that annual rainfall is increasing, with seven of the ten wettest years occurring in the last 35 years. The most recent year to feature in the top20 driest years is 1955. There is a more marked rise during winter, with October to March rainfall increasing by nearly a third between the start of the series and recent decades. Hence our increasing flooding problems.
On sunshine, where records start in 1910, there has been a small increase in average annual sunshine.
And the result of these changes is suffering and death. The 2022 heatwave across Europe killed nearly 62,000 people. The multiyear drought in Eastern Africa sees 40 million people facing severe hunger.
So, with all these clear warnings, is the world taking climate change seriously? Not really. The UK Government is about to pass new legislation which will guarantee more oil and gas production, and therefore more climate change, against all international advice.
And the government of Azerbaijan has just appointed Mukhtar Babayev, who worked for its state oil company for 26 years, as the president of the next international climate talks, COP29, which will start in Baku in November. So, for the second year running, the world’s delicate climate negotiations will be held in a country which is overwhelmingly dependent on fossil fuel income and chaired by an oilman.
The planet could not be sending us clearer signals that we are heading for climate disaster. There are many good things happening in the transition to a low-carbon world – in transport, housing, energy production and industry. But they are not happening fast enough – particularly as most oil-producing nations drag us backwards by continuing to plan to produce more and more fossil fuels.