Big chance to end Cardiff hoodoo - but don’t underestimate Wales

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Winning away in the Six Nations is hard, one reason why Grand Slams aren’t common. Sometimes you get one monkey off your back – we haven’t lost at Twickenham since 2017 – but in general, and not only for Scotland, victories away from home are rare enough to be cherished.

When we won in Paris in 1995, that was our first victory there since 1969. So our long losing run in Cardiff, where we haven’t won since Bill Mclaren’s last commentary in 2002, is disappointing but not remarkable.

Nevertheless, we start as favourites today. This is a very inexperienced Welsh team, especially in the scrum with a captain in Dafydd Jenkins who is only 21. I guess that our locks, Richie Gray and Scott Cummings, have more caps than the Welsh pack put together. There is more experience in their back division, though Cameron Winnett at full-back is winning his first cap and Sam Costelow is playing in his first Six Nations match. That said, I’ve looked forward to seeing him do so since I watched him play for Wales under-20 against England. He is all dancing feet, imagination, impertinence and flair in the classic tradition of Max Boyce’s long ago Welsh fly-half factory, something which like the coal mines and steel-works seemed to have been closed down years ago.

Then Wales’ most experienced squad member, George North, dropped out this week. He has caused us more than a little trouble in the past, but perhaps this is balanced by the late withdrawal of Blair Kinghorn from the Scotland team. He has been in rampant form since his move to Toulouse. His replacement, the former Scotland Sevens star Kyle Rowe, now of Glasgow where he has been scoring tries for fun, deserves his chance, for he has had a hard time, first with injury, then with unemployment and a spell stacking shelves for Amazon when his club, London Irish, went bust. It’s a little surprising that he is at 15 with his club captain Kyle Steyn at 14 and not the other way round, but then wings and the full-back are pretty well interchangeable these days.

On paper the Scottish forwards should dominate the Welsh, who are without Jac Morgan, their inspirational World Cup captain, and also the accomplished veteran Toby Falatau, but matches aren’t won on paper and even a raw Welsh team at Cardiff is likely to be more fiercely competitive than Wales were when they lost by some 30 points at Murrayfield last year. They still have a lively-looking three-quarter line where Josh Adams is a proven Six Nations try-scorer and Saracens’ Nick Tompkins a centre I have always admired.

With Steyn and Duhan van der Merwe on the wings and the Glasgow couple,

Bryan Redpath releases the ball in April 2002, the last time Scotland won in Cardiff. Left, Blair Kinghorn misses out on today’s game with an injury

Huw Jones and Sione Tuipulotu at centre, with Finn Russell conducting the orchestra, Scotland can score tries against anyone.

It is a measure of the quality of the Glasgow centres that Cameron Redpath is only on the bench.

The game changes but some things remain the same. It is still rare to win internationals without a secure set scum, a safe line-out on your own throw, and some powerful gain-line breaching by the forwards. Scotland should be capable of that, even though there are some doubts about the consistent accuracy of George Turner’s throwing-in. Richie Gray may not be the galloping runner of his youth, but it’s a rare match in which he doesn’t steal a couple of opposition throws.

There will no doubt be a lot of kicking from hands. Gareth Davies, the Welsh scrum-half, is a testing box-kicker and it may be that Kinghorn’s rare ability to take the high kick and counter-attack will be missed. On the other hand, Russell is now a master of every kind of kick, and will surely test the young Welsh full-back who has played only 15 professional games.

Yes, we should win but I always remember that in the first match I attended at Murrayfield a very inexperience Scottish side won 19-0 against a Welsh team with 13 Lions, which had just thumped England by more than 20 points.

Leaders Hawick travel to Selkirk for a Border derby today in the Premiership with the Bill Mclaren Shield up for grabs.

The visitors know that any match points will see them finish the regular season top of the table before the play-offs.

Marr and Currie are safely into the play-offs alongside Hawick and the former have a two-point advantage over their Edinburgh rivals as they look to finish second and secure a home semi-final.

Themenfromtroonareat Musselburghandcurrieare hosting Edinburgh Accies today. Seventh-placed Musselburgh and fifth-placed Accies are still in with a shot of earning the fourth and final play-off spot.

Kelso, in pole position for fourth, are away to already relegated Jed-forest with Heriot’s Blues, in sixth, hosting ninth-placed Glasgow Hawks.

Edinburgh’s women are hosting the Irish Clovers at Hive Stadium at 12.30pm looking to secure a top half placing before the Celtic Challenge splits into two. Glasgow Warriors cannot make the top half and head to take on Brython Thunder in Wales at 2.30pm.