Sunak’s conservatives can’t avoid a reckoning after series of betrayals
◆ We are already seeing Tories fighting for the soul of whatever is left in the embers of the party’s defeat, writes Brian Monteith
As the 2019 general election approached it was on Monday 11 November that Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage announced he was standing down his candidates in the 317 seats the Conservatives had won in 2017. He announced his “unilateral” move after Boris Johnson agreed the UK would leave the European Union by the end of 2020 and there would be no “political alignment” with Brussels.
Since that day in November the eventual betrayal of the deal with Farage has been accompanied by a betrayal of the wider promises made to the British public.
Like so many promises made by the Conservatives in that campaign – helping win them the moral authority to govern with a particular mandate – political alignment with Brussels is now becoming fully visible while the various iterations of the Northern Ireland Protocol ensure part of the UK remains under legal jurisdiction of the EU. The decapitation of Johnson has shifted completely the Conservative government’s orientation away from divergence from the EU, light touch regulation and lower taxes – in favour of aping Tony Blair’s Labour Party.
Repeated Conservative commitments about reducing immigration, but especially illegal immigration, are now viewed as hollow. The many pledges to use Brexit freedoms to drive a growing economy look increasingly empty as the repeal of many restrictive, or just unnecessary EU regulations have been abandoned. New EU laws are being quietly adopted under a different guise and new UK initiatives shelved in favour of EU programmes.
Yet it could all have been so different. Had the Conservatives cut a different deal, one that would have matched the withdrawal of Brexit Party candidates by reducing their own campaigning in some Labour seats in favour of Farage’s nominees, the defeat of Corbyn could have been far bigger and the number of “Leave” MPS significantly increased.
That deal was never likely, however, as the last thing Johnson’s negotiators could allow would be for the Brexit Party to become the political conscience of the Conservatives in Westminster. That would have left no room to ditch promises – or the Brexit Party would likely continue its exponential growth and replace them.
They got their wish; Johnson won his 80-seat majority with the help of Farage, whose candidates fighting Labour seats often took enough votes to be the difference for otherwise no-hope Conservatives to win. Likewise, Farage’s fear of splitting the “Leave” vote in Conservative seats vulnerable to Liberal Democrats was avoided. As Conservative strategists intended, all this was done without a single Brexit Party candidate being elected.
The outcome gave Conservative centrists (essentially “remainers”), time to frustrate the Brexit project and ultimately betray the public too, which through the collapse of Labour’s Red Wall, appeared intent on delivering a long-overdue realignment in British politics. Once Johnson was gone, one-by-one Leave-supporting ministers have been removed or moved sideways by Sunak’s regime and with the return of David Cameron as an unaccountable Foreign Secretary sitting in the Lords the political alignment with Brussels is more transparent than ever.
Having fought to prevent the economic largesse of Jeremy Corbyn, the Conservatives have presided over public spending levels that would make him justifiably jealous. Talk of making tax cuts ebbs and flows, but such is the scale of the damage done by Sunak’s past freezing of tax thresholds and increases in taxes – followed through by pro-eu Chancellor Jeremy Hunt – there is no prospect of a serious reduction in the tax burden that would reboot economic growth.
A few examples show better results could have been possible for a truly Conservative and Unionist approach.
The Business and Trade Department has successfully rolled-over 33 former EU trade deals while producing five new or improved deals of its own. Exports to Japan affected by our terms of the Free Trade Agreement are up 50 per cent on the previous year while exports to Australia have increase by 18.5 per cent since the FTA was signed. The deal to join the transpacific trade agreement (CPTPP) will open many more doors, while lucrative FTAS with India and the Gulf States are tantalisingly close to being signed-off.
Meanwhile, the Scottish Office has taken a far more robust approach to dealing with Scottish Government. Gone are the days of David Cameron and David Mundell accommodating demands for more powers. Instead, under Alister Jack the UK Government has challenged SNP legislation or obstruction so Bills have been effectively struck down and freeports introduced despite SNP opposition.
Unfortunately such successes are relatively rare. It should come as no surprise then that Conservative voters are refusing to go to the polls.
Now Reform UK, the rebranded Brexit Party with Richard Tice as leader and Farage as president, is making an electoral impact. Last week in Knightswood Rupert Lowe won a significant 10 per cent of the vote – more than Labour’s majority over the defeated Tory candidate – while in Wellingborough Ben Habib came third with 13 per cent, more than the Liberal Democrats and Greens put together.
Both Farage and Tice have sworn there will be no deal to save the Conservatives from defeat in the next general election. The want to see it face its reckoning.
If the by-elections tell us anything it is that there is no saving Sunak’s administration and we are already seeing Conservatives fight for the soul of whatever is left in the embers of its defeat – while Labour strides forward to win in England, Scotland and Wales.
The Conservatives have presided over public spending levels that would make Jeremy Corbyn jealous