Europeans fear Ukrainian victory ‘less likely’ if Donald Trump wins US election
There is growing pessimism in Europe about the Russiaukraine war, and fears that a Donald Trump win at this year’s US presidential elections will make a Ukrainian victory “less likely”, a study has found.
The report, published today by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), found just 10 per cent of Europeans believe there will be a Ukraine victory, while the majority believe a “compromise settlement” will end the war.
This comes as a United Nations report found Ukrainians are increasingly less likely to want to return home at the end of the war, which began two years ago this week, as the conflict drags on.
There are almost 6.5 million refugees from Ukraine who have sought refuge globally. Some 3.7 million people remain forcibly displaced inside the country. The UNHCR study found two thirds of refugees and 72 per cent of internally displaced people surveyed still expressed a desire to return home one day. However, the proportion has declined, with more expressing uncertainty due to the ongoing war. While the ECFR study found a growing number of people do not now believe Ukraine will triumph in the war, the majority still do not support appeasement with Russia and there is widespread backing for maintaining, and even increasing, levels of European aid to Kyiv in the event of a US policy pivot.
Ivan Krastev, co-author of the report and chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, said: “The big danger is that Trump, inset, – and Putin who has hinted that he is open to negotiations – try to portray Ukraine – and its backers – as the ‘forever war’ party while they claim the mantle of ‘peace’. Russian victory is not peace. If the price of ending the war is turning Ukraine into a no-man’s land, this will be a defeat not only for Kyiv, but for Europe and its security.
"Now when Moscow advocates negotiations, it is important for both Ukrainian and Western publics to know what is not negotiable when it comes to the future of Ukraine. From a Western standpoint, what is unnegotiable is the democratic and pro-western choice of Ukraine.”