Sunak maybe pushed into election by divided party
◆ Again, Conservative MPS appear to lack confidence in their leader as another date is written off, writes Christine Jardine
Will he or won’t he? The question Shakespeare might have asked if he were writing about the endless, exhausting dramas enfolding the UK’S governing party. It has been the election date that has vied with that alleged racist comment and embarrassing donor to be top of the Conservatives’ chaos chart.
The Scottish party distanced themselves from all of it with a speed which Usain Bolt would have envied; Tory Central Office might have issued a rebuke if they hadn’t been suffering from the political equivalent of whiplash as the election carrot was dangled, then snatched away.
At the time of writing, the Prime Minister has ruled out an election on May 2, but, I’m still not sure whether anyone including many in his own party entirely believe him. Certainly if you’re more than 20 points behind in the opinion polls it sounds like electoral madness to go to the country now.
But it does look increasingly as if the Prime Minister is running out of options, and supporters, at Westminster. Everywhere one goes people are speculating. “He is going to call it, he has no option” in one chat. Then five minutes later: “No, he will wait for the autumn and hope the economy improves” in another.
Ironically, when he insisted recently that his working assumption was that the election would be the latter half of the year, that only galvanised campaigners to prepare for May, just in case. And now, well, the speculation isn’t going away.
You don't have to be Nostradamus to know the Conservatives won't fare well on May 2 when voters go to the polls south of the Border for council, police commissioner and mayoral elections. But still this government wants, we are told, to stagger on.
One of two things could be happening here. Either the Prime Minister truly believes his government is doing enough to help families and businesses combat the cost-of-living crisis, or he simply doesn’t get it. Either option makes me sad to my core.
Everywhere I go in Edinburgh West, people tell me they are concerned about that cost-of-living crisis and how it’s hitting them. That they can’t get a GP, or a dentist. That our public services are crumbling. And if they are coping themselves, they are worried about their children’s future, or their elderly parents or neighbours.
According to the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, in 2021/22, more than one in five people in the UK were living in poverty – two in ten working age adults; three in ten children, and one in six pensioners. So what if inflation has come down to 4 per cent, that is no consolation if you are struggling to overcome the damage it caused to your household and finances when it was 11 per cent.
For the Prime Minister, the most worrying aspect at Westminster shouldn’t be the press speculation, or opposition jibes, but the obvious divisions and lack of confidence from his own MPS. If you get a chance, I would watch Prime Minister’s Question Time this Wednesday. Not for the content but because, if the rumour mill is to be believed, we won’t see too much more of this line-up at the despatch box.