Boom or bust?

David Alexander (Opinion, 28 March) contradicts himself by stating first that “Scots have been enjoying a bit of a mini boom in housing with the market rising substantially” and then citing the latest data showing that from December 2022 to November 2023 average existing house prices increased by just 1.9 per cent.

Mr Alexander was making a distinction with new house prices, which rose 22 per cent over that period, and prices overall rose more quickly longer term, but only 20,992 new houses were completed last year, a tiny fraction of total housing stock, and 11 per cent down on 2022.

Estate agents naturally talk up the market and one wonders how many Scots are benefitting from the new house price boom. New house prices are 64 per cent higher than existing stock and with the cost of living crisis and high mortgage rates biting it’s difficult not to draw the conclusion that much of the demand for new housing is coming from England, where average house prices are over 50 per cent higher, bringing affordability.

Indeed, as The Scotsman reported (27 March), migration is sustaining our population. Pre-pandemic there were around 45,000 entering annually from the rest of the UK and the most recent NRS data shows an annual increase to above 50,000 so the new housing demand is there.

With recent tax rate hikes for high earners here, however, it’s questionable if working age inward migration of high earners from England is sustainable, making this new housing boom ephemeral.

Neil Anderson

Edinburgh