Study recommends abandoning SNP’S pledge to increase teacher numbers
report commissioned by the Scottish Government has recommended abandoning an SNP promise to increase teacher numbers.
Modelling by WPI Economics instead suggests attempting to maintain existing levels, warning that delivering the pledge to recruit more teachers could have “significant implications for cost and sustainability”, while raising questions about “whether this delivers maximum value for money”.
The study said that if teacher numbers were maintained, actual teaching could be reduced to 21 hours by 2028 – two years later than planned.
Ahead of the 2021 election, the SNP pledged to recruit 3,500 additional teachers and classroom assistants. But the overall number has fallen by 252 full time equivalent sin the past two years, while some councils, such as Glasgow City, are planning further reductions.
There is a huge short fall in the number of students training to be secondary teachers at Scottish universities, when compared to targets.
The authors of the report looked at projections for a decline in pupil numbers in the coming years andanalysed various options open to the Government.
The document concluded: “Focusing on the implications from projected demographic changes – and in the context of constrained public sector budgets–ourmodelling suggests that a constant, rather than increasa ing, teacher stock could more closely match expected teacher resourcing needs over the next decade.
"This could avoid sudden excesses in teacher numbers relative to resourcing needs, while meeting the policy commitment to reduce contact time to 21 hours, albeit by 2028, two years later than planned.”
Mike Corbett, NASUWT national official Scotland, said the report was notable for its lack of data on the recruitment and retention of teachers, localised context sand the size and operation of the supply teacher workforce.
“Without these, any decisionmaking is not fully informed and nasu wt requests that the Scottish Government swiftly commission or produce relevant research data in these areas to aid discussions,” he said.
Scottish Conservative educationspokesman li am kerr said: “In the light of this report, the new First Minister John Swinney, who had a catastrophic record as education secretary, must decide whether to abandon a key election pledge, or push ahead with an un-costed plan on which the SNP have made no progress.”
Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth said: “I should highlight that the scenarios in the report should not be interpreted as representingscottish government policy.
“However, this modelling, which I hope can be augmented by local data and intelligence from councils, will contribute to discussions with our partners for Teachers on how we can reduce teachers’ class contact time by 90 minutes per week.”