The Scottish Mail on Sunday

Listen, Vlad, old boy – can you cut me a deal?

PM BORIS AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER Europe is playing hardball, President Trump is AWOL and we’re forced to court paranoid Putin... an apocalypti­c Brexit future brilliantl­y imagined

- By MICHAEL BURLEIGH

PUFFING along gilded corridors, past Kremlin Regiment ceremonial guards, Prime Minister Boris Johnson reaches President Putin’s outer office and steels himself. After a long wait, he is ushered inside Putin’s inner sanctum. ‘Tovarisch!’ Boris exclaims, forgetting the Soviet era is over. ‘Boris!’ replies his host. ‘Your name is Russian, too.’

Johnson, in Moscow to negotiate a new trade alliance, mumbles about his Turkish ancestry, forcing a smirk from President Putin. The Prime Minister explains: ‘Listen Vlad, old boy, the problem is that since Brexit – basically a peasants’ revolt almost on the scale of your Pugachev rebellion in the 18th Century – the pound has tanked against the dollar and the EU is playing hardball.’

Boris explains this means that Britain is in the market for an energy deal with the President’s friends at Gazprom. Putin can afford to be generous, thanks to a divided EU rescinding economic sanctions. But there is a small favour he needs concerning Poland…

The Russian basks in his new status as lord of all he surveys, though his ever more powerful neighbours in China are never far from his thoughts. By now, Donald Trump, buoyed by the Brexit vote and a global shift towards a type of politics that favours national interest over internatio­nal co-operation, is ensconced in the White House.

This is the fictional world we could face as the consequenc­es of Brexit reverberat­e for years to come. It is a world which, for the first time since the end of the 19th Century, has no dominant power thanks to the diminished influence of Britain, a fractured EU and an America that appears increasing­ly introspect­ive.

Ultimately, last week’s vote could hasten the end of the West’s ability to write the rulebook, and we should fully anticipate others shaping the world we inhabit when Moscow and Beijing fill the power vacuum.

There’s little our Government will be able to do about it. Whoever becomes Prime Minister in October will be fully engaged in unravellin­g the complex treaties that connect us with the EU, while trying to prevent the Scots heading for the exit.

It is instructiv­e that the response of the Brexit leaders in victory was not to announce an action plan, but to call for a pause. That’s because there is no plan. There never could be. In truth, the triumphant Leave side is an unstable alliance of libertaria­n free marketeers, who envisage us roving the seas in the buccaneer Britannia, and angry supporters who want our education, health and welfare systems protected from ‘leeching’ immigrants. This is like mixing oil and water.

Sooner rather than later, the new Government will have to explain to its supporters why their living standards have fallen as Britain tries to become more ‘globally competitiv­e’ – slippery code for the erosion of wages and workers’ rights.

Meanwhile, if it is true to its word, the Brexit Government will itself boost ‘quality’ immigratio­n from beyond the EU.

Secondary ripples are already being felt across a divided Europe. While the undistingu­ished leaders of the EU, Juncker, Schulz and Tusk included, try to rapidly bundle an obstrepero­us Britain out of the door like an angry drunk at a cocktail party, none of the problems of the continent will be addressed, notably how to deal with waves of migrants and refugees from the failed states in Africa and the Middle East. Meanwhile, the EU is criss-crossed by fault lines.

Authoritar­ian nationalis­ts are already in power in Hungary and Poland. Southern far-Left populists will grow more strident in their resistance to austerity dictated by severe northern cent-pinchers – especially if the far-Left alliance does well in today’s Spanish General Election. We may yet see the

implosion of Greece this summer under an avalanche of debt.

Like the UK, Belgium and Spain face the threat of nationalis­t secession. The disintegra­tion of traditiona­l parties means new actors and unstable coalitions. Further referendum­s on EU membership, in Denmark, Finland, Italy, the Netherland­s and Sweden, will be hard to resist. Without Britain, German domi- nance becomes more glaring, especially with France flounderin­g under a hapless president who, the joke goes, makes it rain even when he visits atropical island in the Pacific. Both countries have major election selections looming. The French presidency is likely to be captured by captured by conservati­ve Gaullists, though after the UK referendum, the prospects-for Marine Le Penare brighter.

In Germany, the Social Democrats are cosying up to hard-Left former-communists, while the conservati­ve CDU is under threat from the raucous Alternativ­e für Deutschlan­d. Deutschlan­d. Italy’s government may not survive are ferendumin October.

The wides trepercuss­ions will be in the areas of defence and security, security, however. Most have failed to notice the poor shape of Nato. Britain is one of the very few Europeanme­mbers that meet the target-of committing­two percent of their-GDP to defence.

Britain was crucial, too, in imposing economic sanctions on Russia.

Now an erratic GaullistFr­ance anda neutralist Germany will competefor Moscow’s favours.

Putin already has the Greek Syriza government in his pocket, and the Italians are wobbly about sanctions becausethe­ydepend onGazprom.

Putinalrea­dy acts as patron-in chiefof European populists andsundry Syria, he has subverted Western alliances intheMiddl­eEast,with every local potentatef­rom Israel’s Netanyahu toSaudi KingSalman paying homageinMo­scow. The Chinese are doingmucht­he same withtheire­conomic might in Africa and Latin America,whilemenac­ing Asian neighbours inthe seasaround them.

THUS the stage is set for at sunami that could wipe away the world as we know it. Since 1945, we have lived under internatio­nal institutio­ns and legal norms the West establishe­d. But Brexit has undermined its European pillar. Brexit end angers Britain’s global influence, too.There have been warnings warnings wemight lose our permanent seat at the UN Security Council. And whatever reassuring noises Washington makes for now, it is regarded regarded the reasastrat­egic disaster.

The next Government face a cold reality that flies in the face of their rhetoric of ‘takingback­control’.

They will find that none of theconsequ­ences of globalisat­ion that so galvanised their supporters­will suddenly disappear thanks to Brexit. Nor will they have a magic money pot to disburse to globalisat­ion’s globalisat­ion’s angry British victims. Buyer’s remorse can be a very viciousthi­ng.

Oh cripeski! All I wanted was a bit of gas for the central heating – and this Russki blighter is demanding Poland in return!

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