THERESA THE ‘SUBMARINE’
A ‘wound-up’ PM, a ‘sphinx-like’ Mrs May and the ploy that saw her win power
AS CAMERON returns to work after the New Year, he resolves to find out which Ministers he can rely on to back him over the referendum. The key Cabinet figure giving him particular concern is Home Secretary Theresa May.
MONDAY, JANUARY 11
A MAJOR focus of the week commencing Monday, January 11, is who would be ‘In’ (with the PM) and who would be ‘Out’ (against him) in the event of a successful renegotiation [of the terms of the UK’s membership of the European Union].
Conversations keep circling back to what Home Secretary Theresa May will do. Some feel her past speeches would make it hard for her to go ‘Out’.
The PM believes authenticity would be a problem for her, so she won’t do it – if you take a position that isn’t where your instincts lie there’s a real prospect of being ‘smoked out’. However, a discussion in Tuesday’s Cabinet meeting about the importance of remaining a united party throughout the referendum campaign is interesting because of who does not speak – Theresa, playing her cards very close to her chest.
Afterwards, some of the team want to discuss her. Her sphinx-like approach is becoming difficult, with the press questioning which way she will jump. The conversation turns around this being the biggest thing the PM has faced and him not even knowing if the Home Secretary is backing him.
Some think she is heading Out; others that she’s relishing keeping us guessing; others that she simply can’t make up her mind. Apparently DC is worried she does not realise she would be a central figure in any future Government of his, and wants to communicate that to her.
At the weekend, I call the PM as he is on his way to the constituency, and ask how this chat with May went. I can tell he is frustrated. It sounds like she refused to come off the fence. From her point of view it’s a smart strategy, trying to demonstrate she is her own person, allowing her to have her cake and eat it, but it doesn’t seem fair on DC, who has treated her well.
Later that month, while in Davos in Switzerland, my phone comes alive with texts from London. May has been seen lunching in Westminster with the leading ‘Outer’ Liam Fox at Quirinale. The hacks say it’s the kind of restaurant you go to if you want to be seen, and clearly feel she is playing games. I ignore attempts to get us to comment.
At the end of January, on a plane to Brussels, the conversation turns to the fact that the Home Secretary still hasn’t told us where she is going: leading the Out campaign, or sticking with us. DC looks wistfully out of the window and says: ‘Well, it may work for her. She could be PM in six months’ time.’ [May officially became Prime Minister on July 13, five and a half months later.]
At the beginning of February, as we are racing towards the first draft of the negotiated settlement with the EU being released, I have a hilarious meeting with May’s Home Office special advisers.
I say it will be a key moment for Theresa to make the case for Remaining. One of the advisers blurts out: ‘Theresa will be away that week!’
‘Yes, but she’ll be back on the day. We’ll need to get lots of voices out.’
‘She’s going away that weekend with [her husband] Philip!’ is the rushed response after a couple of seconds of thinking time.
‘Yes. But she’ll be back on the Monday, and that will be a crucial time,’ I continue patiently. They assure me they’re more than willing to help and will get back to me.
The following day, the front page of The Times looks briefed by people close to May. It says DC ‘faces last-minute opposition from her to a compromise on migration’.
May wants, among other things, Brussels to close a back door route into Britain that’s being used by migrants from outside the EU. The report says it’s leading to fears in No 10 that she could refuse to back the reform deal.
Later, on a train to Chippenham for a speech, DC is visibly wound up by the report.
Suddenly he picks up his mobile and calls May, asking her to make clear we have been victorious in our plan to crackdown on ‘swindlers and fiddlers’ attempting to come into the UK.
When he hangs up he seems to think he’s made an impact.
Later the Home Secretary issues a statement saying she believes there’s ‘the basis for a deal here’.
This is interpreted as the moment she climbed down off the fence. After all the concern around her, it all seems to have ended not with a bang, but a whimper.
In Brussels in mid-February for the crunch renegotiation summit, I make sure we have enough Cabinet Ministers ready to do media over the weekend if a deal is done.
May could add a lot of force but we are getting reports that she is unprepared to help, saying that it would be awkward for her because immigration
numbers are coming out next week and she will face difficult questions. The fact is, I am worried that if the issue is forced she will say something unhelpful. On Monday, March 7, I go for a meeting with May in her office suite in the Home Office. We discuss the fact it would be good to have an intervention from her soon. The PM is looking like he is the only one out there fighting the campaign. She nods and agrees that later in the week she will be asked about Europe and she will be categoric in expressing her view. She wants to give a full speech ‘after Easter’, but we settle on next week. ‘After Easter’ feels like an eternity away. In terms of pure politics you have to hand it to her, she is playing it well. She is on the right side making clear she is ‘In’, but not looking overly enthusiastic. It’s making life uncomfortable for us. In April, there’s another big push to get May out there. She’s agreed to do a newspaper article on Sunday April 24, BBC1’s The Andrew Marr Show, and a speech on security. I call her special adviser on the Thursday before to find out more. She immediately says: ‘I’m so sorry. Theresa just doesn’t feel able to do the article, she doesn’t feel she’s had time to think through the arguments.’ I don’t even bother to argue back, it’s so predictable. I write an ironic email, entitled ‘Shock News’ to the team to let them know she’s pulling back. That Sunday, I wait to hear from May’s team. We have agreed they will be giving the media part of the speech she is giving tomorrow. It’s standard to run these things through No10 so there are no surprises. Come 4.15pm we have seen nothing. I make some calls to ensure they send it. When I read it, alarm bells begin to ring. It starts well: ‘She will put forward a positive case for reasons to Remain.’ But there are phrases in there which will be catnip to journalists suspecting she isn’t fully signed up.
‘The Home Secretary will call for a more mature debate which acknowledges the complex challenges that lie ahead.’ She does not want to ‘insult people’s intelligence by claiming that membership of the EU is wholly good, or that the sky will fall in if we vote to leave.’
That will mean the story will be all about the Home Secretary chiding the Remain campaign for its approach and saying it’s a fine decision between staying and leaving. Not helpful.
I call the PM, who is mowing the lawn at his constituency home. He sees the point.
After a lot of negotiation, it’s agreed a version without the ‘sky falling in’ line goes out.
The next morning we discover the whole of her speech has been briefed to the press so that it can’t be changed. Will Straw, the Remain campaign director, texts me: ‘Are we sure May’s not an agent for the other side!?’
Leaving No 10 one evening, Theresa is just ahead of me. I have a feeling that with all the Conservative warring, she could come out of all of it very well.
By mid-June, it’s clear to me that whatever the outcome of the referendum, we’ll be out of No10 quite quickly. I don’t see how the PM can survive. I mention this to Kate Fall who doesn’t even blink, describing the current situation by saying: ‘Oh yes… this is the burning of Moscow stage.’
DC disagrees. He is clear that we will be able to steady the ship and continue. A win, combined with a strong will, will see us through.
On Wednesday, June 15, completely against my advice, May does an interview with the BBC. Whether it’s by accident or design, she has reopened the debate over whether we need to do more about freedom of movement.
I find it frustrating. It would be better if she stuck to her submarine strategy of disappearing from view. This is starting to spin badly out of control. We are being knocked about by indiscipline from all sides in this ramshackle coalition.
On Referendum Day, I arrive at No10 to be informed that Theresa, who has spent this entire campaign avoiding media where possible, is now keen to do the high-profile 8.10am slot on the next morning’s Today programme on Radio 4, once we know the result.
We’ve already told the BBC that the Defence Secretary [Michael Fallon] is doing it but May’s team is trying to set it up behind our back.
After the Prime Minister’s resignation, Boris pulling out of the leadership contest, and Gove being knocked out, it becomes a battle between Theresa and Andrea Leadsom. Then Andrea appears to suggest she would be a better leader because she has children and May does not. It leads to Leadsom’s withdrawal.
Amid the murder and betrayal of the campaign, one figure stayed very still at the centre of it all – Theresa May. Now she is the last one standing.