Brexit ‘red lines’ will drag Nicola into new indyref

IT is one of those political rules that’s as old as the hills – never get pinned down to anything that you can’t get out of. So why has Nicola Sturgeon – undoubtedly one of the sharpest political minds in the country – forgotten this as she allows herself to be painted into a corner over Brexit?

In all the talk, the accusations, the acrimony and the confusion over Brexit, Miss Sturgeon has made it clear she has a number of so-called ‘red line’ issues.

If the UK does not manage to stay in the European single market then Scotland will almost certainly have to go its own way, the First Minister has declared. As she told MSPs recently, she will explore ‘different options up to and including independence’.

She has also made it clear she would find it unacceptable if Scots had to get visas to travel to Europe, if EU citizens in Scotland lost their rights to stay here and if there were hard borders around the UK stopping Europeans from coming here to work.

At the same time, Miss Sturgeon has derided the UK Government for failing to give any indication of what Brexit is going to mean.

Well, perhaps it is time to look at these issues together.

Now, no one can predict exactly what deal the UK is going to get as it extricates itself from the EU– but we can make a pretty good guess.

Firstly – and most importantly – it is very, very unlikely that we will be able to remain in the single market. The European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has said: ‘There can be no à la carte access to the single market.’

David Davis, the UK’s Brexit Minister, said that it was ‘very improbable’ that Britain could stay in the single market and also control its borders.

So it doesn’t take a crystal ball to predict that Britain will secure access to the single market, probably extensive access, but will not be allowed to remain a proper member of it.

This then raises the second main point in the negotiations: control of Britain’s borders.

If the UK wants to control its borders and restrict immigration from the EU, then not only will it have to do that outside the single market but it will have to erect proper, hard borders to do so.

So, even with a cursory glance ahead, the UK’s future within Europe starts to take shape.

We will not be in the single market – which could be devastating for financial services and other industries that presently operate freely across the Continent.

We may bring back the old, blue British passports but we will also have hard border checks at our airports and ports to deal with.

We may also need visas to travel to countries in the European Union and, as they grow closer together, the distance between us and Europe will increase.

But it is also likely that no guarantees will – or can – be given to EU citizens living in the UK that their existing rights to remain and work will be protected.

If any of us, looking at the evidence, can make a pretty good stab at what Brexit is going to look like, we can be sure the First Minister has an even better idea.

She will know that we are heading for a hard Brexit. She will know that the chances of Britain remaining in the single market are declining with every day that passes. And she will know that a future of hard borders, visas and restrictions on EU citizens in Scotland lies ahead.

As each of these issues becomes clearer, so Miss Sturgeon will inevitably be pushed further and further towards holding another independence referendum: she will be unable to stop that process given what she has said.

NOW, I happen to believe those close to the First Minister who insist she hasn’t yet decided whether there will be another independence referendum.

She knows the polls are not shifting in her favour and there are deep-rooted fears over the economy and the currency in an independent Scotland.

So Miss Sturgeon is hesitating. She is preparing the groundwork, that’s for sure, but as for the

THERE are some people who, it seems, really do believe that Nicola Sturgeon can fix anything. A notice appeared on the Scottish parliament cash machine last week saying: ‘Cash machine out of order: FM informed’. ‘Wow,’ said an amazed passer-by, ‘They tell the First Minister everything.’ That was until it was quietly pointed out that FM, in this case, stood for Holyrood’s Facilities Management, not the ubiquitous First Minister.

actual decision, she has yet to make it. Indeed, she won’t make it for some time to come.

She’s decided the best option is just to feel her way on this issue: she is sure of what she wants from Brexit but unsure how she’ll react if she fails to get it.

This is a confusing approach for a politician who takes pride in planning everything in detail, as far ahead as she can.

A cynic might suggest that the First Minister doesn’t actually know what to do.

She appears to have set her sails in a certain way, knowing which way the wind is blowing but, at the same time, she refuses to acknowledge where this will inevitably take her.

That is not leadership. To lead is to set a course, tell everybody where you want to go, adjust the sails accordingly and fight hard to get there.

Miss Sturgeon keeps saying she wants clarity from Theresa May, on where the PM wants to go and what she wants from Brexit.

Well, perhaps it is time Miss Sturgeon also told us where she wants us to go and how we are going to get there. We all know which direction we are going in: it would nice if the captain of the ship admitted it too.