NOW’S THE TIME TO WORK TOGETHER
Silent majority are in danger of losing out
OUR country risks being torn apart by two nationalist forces. Scottish Nationalists and the hardline Brexiteers have much in common. They insist there has to be someone else to blame.
They have little tolerance for anyone who opposes them. And neither is prepared to compromise. Yet, caught between them, it’s the silent, pragmatic majority who will lose out.
In 2014 we were told the Scottish referendum was ‘a once in a generation event’ and that the result was decisive. But, looking back, it was inevitable that within minutes of the result – a decisive No – being declared they would begin planning another referendum. All that was needed was an excuse.
Public opinion in Scotland has not shifted much in the past three years but Nicola Sturgeon has led her troops up to the top of the hill and doesn’t know how to get them down again. So now the SNP threatens another divisive referendum.
Poll after poll shows a huge majority of Scots don’t want another referendum any time soon. They are exhausted with the constant constitutional wrangling and dread a rerun of the divisions that tore friends and families apart. People want cohesion, to get on with their lives, without threats and eternal strident contortions.
Even many Yes voters don’t want another run at it now. Scotland’s voice is clear and the Nationalists should heed it.
It’s not as if they have any answers to the questions that floored them in 2014. Last year we were promised a ‘big conversation’. We were told they were working on what currency Scotland would use. The big conversation turned out to be a familiar one: they were right, everyone else was wrong.
We were told there would be an answer to the fact that oil revenues have virtually dried up, they would tell us how they would deal with the £15 billion gap between what we spend and what we get in. The answer is quite simple. You either cut spending or raise taxes and probably both. The SNP has already put up taxes: many pay more tax than they would if they lived south of the Border.
We are heading for a Brexit disaster. Whatever happens we will not get as good a deal with our trading partners in Europe as we have now. To compound this by leaving the UK, cutting ourselves off from 70 per cent of our markets, would be madness. Nicola Sturgeon is railing against Tory austerity. Cutting ourselves off would see Scotland facing Greek-style austerity.
AND if we were to leave the UK, and want to join the EU, it is impossible to see how we can share the same currency, even if the Brexit nationalists would ever agree to it. Of course the prospect of another referendum is a useful distraction from the nationalists’ home-grown problems. Longer waiting times for hospital beds and appointments.
The disgraceful fact Scottish education is now going backwards, with children from poorer backgrounds doing half as well as those from better off households. A lost decade of SNP rule. No wonder they want us to look away.
So why does Nicola Sturgeon say she wants a referendum in late 2018 or early 2019? She says it is because a Brexit deal will be reached by then. That is far from certain. As a Cabinet Minister I spent 13 years negotiating with my European counterparts. You cannot accuse them of acting at speed.
One thing is very clear. There should be no referendum until we can see what a final deal looks like.
In the EU negotiations, there is so much rancour around, so many who want to teach us a lesson, that we could spend months trading insults instead of engaging in hard-headed negotiation. It is very possible there will be a crisis at the end of the two years. Negotiations could drag on beyond that.
The Brexiteers have a lot to answer for. We did not vote for a hard Brexit. We did not vote to leave at any cost. We were assured there would be no cost, just lots of money for the NHS. Fake news if ever there was.
Yet the Prime Minister, partly because of the absence of an Opposition at Westminster, seems to have thrown her hand in with this extremist view. Like Nicola Sturgeon, she will find that hard-line nationalism is impossible to appease. If the Prime Minister veers from the line they will be after her.
This does not have to happen. A grown-up, pragmatic conversation with Europe could yield a good outcome – not only for Scotland but for the UK and indeed the European Union.
We are the fifth biggest economy in the world. Europe wants to trade with us. Freedom of movement of people is a real problem in many countries. Then there is the continuing problem with the eurozone. The EU has an opportunity to reset in the light of the world as it is, not as it looked 40 years ago. There is a negotiation to be had, if people are willing.
There is a real possibility that something could be rescued from the wreckage. The last thing we need is the distraction of a referendum in which Scotland would be invited to vote blind for a pig in a poke.
SOMETHING else needs to happen. On the Nationalist side, never again should we be forced to vote for a vague promise of something better. There is no reason why the SNP cannot spell out what the economic consequences of separation would mean, on tax and spending.
It must tell us too, if not the pound, is it to be the euro? Are we guaranteed to get into the EU and on what terms?
For those of us who believe in the strength and value of the United Kingdom, there is work to be done too. Our constitution is in a mess. The latest settlement following the Scottish referendum is a dog’s breakfast.
If there is to be another referendum, it would be only right to consider a second question on the ballot paper: the time has come to consider a more federal relationship with the rest of the UK.
It makes sense for us to share defence, for example. With an ageing population it makes sense also to share responsibility for pensions. But unless it needs to be national, it should be devolved.
Most people are sensible and want to work together rather than create conflict and division. There is work to be done, so let’s do it.
A final point: if we are forced into another referendum will the Nationalists accept the result this time, even if it goes against them? Or are they already planning a third plebiscite, just in case?
Time has come for a more federal relationship in UK