Unionists should welcome second referendum vote

THE snort of derision was loud and dismissive. ‘You are joking,’ the SNP source said. ‘Do you actually think that Nicola Sturgeon is the sort of person who could be pushed into anything, by anybody?’

I had just asked the SNP insider if it was true, as one broadcaster was claiming, that she had been pushed into her referendum decision by Alex Salmond.

There were rumours flying around London that Mr Salmond had forced his successor’s hand and was somehow still in control.

This was shot down completely by the SNP insider, who made it clear, not only that Miss Sturgeon had made the decision after long and detailed discussions with her closest advisers, but that Mr Salmond was now pretty much out of the loop completely.

The insider was right. This was a decision made by a tight band at the top of the SNP.

Consider this: at exactly the moment Miss Sturgeon finished her press conference in Bute House, a Yes campaign website organised by the SNP went live. It had been set up two weeks previously, yet kept offline for just the moment when it would be needed.

But what is more important is the way in which Miss Sturgeon and her key allies had planned this move. They tried to anticipate every step from the UK Government up to, and after, the decision to call a referendum. As a result, they have strategies in place for every eventuality, including Theresa May’s outright rejection of their demand.

They didn’t think the Prime Minister would be so dismissive, at least not to start with, but they had talked through the scenario in advance.

The SNP leadership could hold a ‘consultative’ referendum without Westminster’s backing; or they could stew up as much grudge and grievance over the next few years as possible, hoping that, in a future referendum, the majority for independence will be overwhelming. Some Nationalists are already calling for the Scottish Government to hold an unauthorised referendum. But Miss Sturgeon knows this is fraught with difficulties.

What if the Unionists refuse to take part and call for a boycott? That would render such a referendum meaningless.

It is more likely, therefore, that she will spend the next few years claiming London is trampling over Scotland’s wishes, all the while hoping the Brexit negotiations are a disaster, leaving the option of staying in the UK outside the EU distinctly unpalatable.

Either way, we are left facing between two and five years of incessant constitutional wrangling, at the end of which there could well be another independence referendum.

So where does this leave the Unionists? Ever since Miss Sturgeon delivered her announcement, there has been general wailing and gnashing of teeth on the Unionist side.

‘We haven’t got a leader, we haven’t got a unified campaign, we haven’t got any money, we haven’t got a decent message,” was the chorus last week – and they were right. But none of that matters, not yet anyway, not when it is likely to be five years or so before any real campaign actually starts.

It is, though, worth making a final, compelling point to Unionists everywhere: all those who want the UK to continue should celebrate the possibility of another referendum, not moan about five years of constitutional uncertainty. Why? Because it provides the only cast-iron, definitive chance they will ever get to kill off the Nationalist project once and for all.

After the last referendum, when the Yes camp came close to winning, it was inevitable there would be those who would demand another vote.

But what happens if they get beaten again? Or, more importantly, if they lose by a greater margin than they did in 2014?

A second defeat would signal the end of Miss Sturgeon’s career. It would probably split the SNP; it would certainly end the hope of it winning Holyrood elections for the foreseeable future; and it would absolutely, completely finish off any demands for another referendum, for at least a generation – and this time it would be unarguable.

No one, not even the most obsessional Nationalist, would be able to argue for yet another referendum, having lost two in a row in close succession.

This is what happened in Canada and is what would happen in Scotland too.

Unionists may not want to slog it out all over again – but they should raise their eyes to the future and just imagine what life would be like without the constitution dominating every aspect of our politics.

That is the prize – and if it doesn’t galvanise Unionists to go out and fight again, then – really, truly – nothing will.