TORY LEAD SLASHED IN HALF AFTER TAX U-TURN
Bombshell MoS poll shows May plummeting by 11 points ...denting hopes of landslide Tory turmoil over threats to ditch tax freeze pledge and pensions triple lock
THERESA MAY’S hopes of winning a landslide Election victory suffered a major blow last night after her poll lead plummeted to 11 per cent amid the row over her tax and pension plans.
A Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday put the Conservatives on 40 per cent, followed by Labour on 29 per cent and the Lib Dems and Ukip level on 11 per cent.
It means Mrs May’s lead over Jeremy Corbyn has nearly halved in four days: a poll immediately after she called the Election gave the Tories a 21-point advantage. Polling expert Professor John Curtice said the Survation figures would give Mrs May a Commons majority of 46, an improvement on her current working majority of 17, but way below some forecasts of a 140-seat majority.
The Conservative slump follows the threat to drop existing pledges not to increase tax and to guarantee a minimum 2.5 per cent annual rise in pensions.
The backlash was further fuelled by Mrs May’s surprise announcement that she will not abandon the Party’s controversial promise to spend 0.7 per cent of national
income on overseas aid. The Mail on Sunday poll is the only one to have been conducted after all three stories broke, and shows voters are less likely to vote Tory as a result.
The Prime Minister spurned three opportunities yesterday to contradict claims that she will drop David Cameron’s 2015 Election pledge not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT until 2020.
Put on the spot repeatedly at an election hustings in Dudley, West Midlands, she avoided giving a direct answer, merely stressing the Tories were a party of ‘low taxation’.
She said: ‘People are going to have a very clear election choice between a Conservative Party which always has been and will continue to be a party that believes in lower taxes. Or Labour, whose natural instinct is to always raise taxes.’
Downing Street sources said the Union would also be at the heart of the Tory manifesto.
The Tory turmoil came after Mrs May refused to say she would stick to the so-called pensions ‘triple lock’ when questioned in her Maidenhead constituency on Friday.
And Chancellor Philip Hammond sparked a tax scare, saying it was ‘self-evidently clear that the commitments in the 2015 manifesto strain the Government’s ability to manage the economy flexibly.’
Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell called his statement a ‘Tory tax bombshell’, hijacking the Tories’ former slogan against Labour.
Tory MPs refused to comment publicly for fear of upsetting the party’s chances of success on June 8. However, privately, they were deeply critical. ‘It is an very untidy start to our campaign,’ said one. ‘Someone needs to get hold of our message – and fast. This is not the way to win votes.’
Former Tory Chancellor Norman Lamont said: ‘I think Phillip Hammond is just trying to get some flexibility back into the system, although whether he was wise to say it is a different matter. It is pretty ironic for Labour, of all people, to be using the “tax bombshell” line’.
Senior Tory sources insisted ‘no final decision’ had been made on the Party’s manifesto stance on pensions and tax.
Labour and the Lib Dems seized on the confusion. Mr Corbyn immediately promised to protect pensions, and former Lib Dem Cabinet Minister Vince Cable said: ‘Mr Hammond admitted taxes would have to rise, no doubt due to Mrs May’s hard Brexit that could leave a £100 billion black hole in the public finances. You can’t have a strong economy and a hard Brexit.’
Asked in the poll if Mrs May’s refusal to rule out ending the pensions guarantee would affect their vote, 28 per cent said they were less likely to vote Tory, against 17 per cent who were more likely.
Mr Hammond’s refusal to rule out raising tax prompted a similar negative response. And 34 per cent said refusing to cut overseas aid would make them less likely to vote Tory.
The tax row comes just weeks after Hammond was forced to scrap plans to increase national insurance for the self-employed amid uproar over the effect on ‘white van man’ and the fact that it breached the 2015 manifesto vow on tax rises.
Despite the sharply reduced lead, voters appear relaxed by the prospect of a Tory landslide. A total of 42 per cent said it would be ‘good’ for Britain with 36 per cent against.
There was more Tory confusion last night as Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen claimed a ‘senior Government figure’ had told him the Party manifesto would include a commitment to scrap the controversial High Speed 2 train link from London to Birmingham.
Downing Street sources denied the claim.
And Mrs May was yesterday branded a ‘political opportunist’ by the European Parliament’s Brexit coordinator over the snap Election.
Former Belgian PM Guy Verhofstadt accused her of ‘an attempted power grab... before the reality of Brexit bites’.
Last night an Opinium poll, taken before the tax, pensions and overseas aid row, put the Tory lead at 19 points.
‘It is a very untidy start to our campaign’ May accused of making ‘power grab’
Survation polled 2,072 adults online on Friday afternoon and yesterday.