563 new councillors, yes...but Theresa’s right to be cautious

THE Prime Minister and champagnefuelled euphoria are not natural bedfellows.

So it was no surprise to see Theresa May strenuously playing down the results of last week’s elections, even as many of her party’s 563 new councillors celebrated in style.

But a careful reading of Thursday’s events suggests Mrs May is right to be cautious. A snap General Election was always a gamble – not about whether the Conservatives would win, but whether it would deliver the landslide majority the PM evidently craves.

From Penzance to Wick, nothing that emerged from the ballot boxes suggested that Mrs May will need to call the removal vans on June 9. Rather, it could well be Jeremy Corbyn who has to clear out his office.

But the results also suggest the Tories cannot be certain of a landslide.

The most recent batch of opinion polls have, on average, put the Conservatives on 46 per cent, no fewer than 17 points ahead of Labour on 29 per cent.

These figures point to Mrs May winning an overall majority of 114 – in other words, a ‘landslide’. But a projection of what the local election results would mean in a nationwide ballot put the Tories on just 38 per cent, only 11 points ahead of Labour on 27 per cent.

The Lib Dems were estimated to be on 18 per cent, well above the party’s current average of 10 per cent.

That would suggest an overall Tory majority of 44. Comfortable though such a victory would be, it would not be a landslide.