Hysterical? No, I stand by my ‘appeasement’ warning

HYSTERICAL. Over-excited. In need of therapy even. As extreme as it was predictable, this is how I was labelled by arch-Brexiteers after I warned that quitting the EU could be Britain’s worst mistake since the 1930s appeasement of Hitler. No reasoned argument, no carefully calibrated response… just the implication that I had taken leave of my senses by making a comparison with those dark days leading up to the Second World War.

But I stand by every word. To recap, I warned that if badly handled, Brexit could lead to this nation’s greatest blunder since appeasement because it could have such a dreadful effect on our

people. A blunt, ideologically driven break with Europe could lead to millions of Britons being thrown into poverty – made worse by the fact that in last year’s referendum, they were sold false promises of a new dawn.

By invoking the era of appeasement, I was not trying to depict Theresa May as some latter-day Neville Chamberlain or, as Margaret Thatcher’s official biographer suggested, portray Jeremy Corbyn as a modern-day Winston Churchill.

I was saying that a botched Brexit would have such huge ramifications for ordinary working people that it could only be compared in the sweep of British history to our misguided appeasing of Hitler.

I confess to having been a long-time supporter of British membership of the EU since my student days. But unfortunately for my Brexiteer critics, I do not fit the identikit photo of a swiveleyed Brussels obsessive.

My political career has been almost entirely spent tackling challenges nearer home.

For 20 years I have been on a mission to improve education and

transport systems, which were bywords for failure and poor service. I left the EU for others to worry about.

But ahead of a Westminster debate on the subject, I buried myself in the House of Lords library and underwent two weeks of immersion in the details of the EU’s customs union and single market to understand what they meant for British jobs and trade. It was a Damascene conversion. I already feared that Brexit – or hard Brexit at any rate – was unwise and risky. But I discovered it was extreme, dangerous folly; and that any Brexit which involves leaving the central economic institutions of the EU will imperil millions of jobs.

It would make us the poor relation of France and Germany for as long as we remain isolated.

It is not just that hard Brexit involves imposing tariffs on our trade with Ireland, France, Germany and the other 24 EU states, which between them account for 44 per cent of our exports. There is the enormous practical issue of imposing customs controls, including border checks, on so much trade that previously flowed freely.

As for ‘Empire 2.0’ – the supposed riches of trading with the English-speaking world – the EU’s trade treaty with Canada took effect just two weeks ago!

If you take all 75 nations covered by the EU’s existing trade treaties, they account for 18 per cent of British exports over and above the 44 per cent going to the EU 27.

That’s more than 60 per cent of exports going either to the EU or to countries beyond, made possible by our customs union membership. So, before a single kilo – sorry, ounce – of new trade can be secured, David Davis and Liam Fox have first to negotiate a trade treaty with the 27 remaining EU states, no less favourable than the existing customs union.

Then they must negotiate deals, also no less favourable than the EU’s existing deals, with a further 75 countries. All in the next 20 months. Dream on!

The challenge of the next decade and beyond is to prevent Brexit from consuming the jobs and livelihoods of millions of hard-working Brits.

So whatever the brickbats and insults aimed at me, I will not move from my warning.