Hard talk lost May election, reveals survey

THE growing demand for a ‘soft Brexit’ was one of the main reasons that Theresa May flopped in the General Election and Jeremy Corbyn did so well.

Tory Remain supporters held their noses and voted Labour as the best way to keep Britain in the EU single market and stop a ‘hard Brexit’.

That is the surprise verdict of the most comprehensive and independent survey of voting trends in the June 8 Election.

The British Election Study of 30,000 voters found Brexit was more than three times as important as any other issue, with terrorism second, then the NHS, immigration and the economy.

Another factor was Mrs May’s dismal performance and Mr Corbyn’s much-praised campaign, according to Professor Ed Fieldhouse and Dr Chris Prosser of Manchester University. They

‘Strong and stable’ was a ‘spectacular mistake’

say: ‘One of the reasons Labour did so well among Remainers is that, by the time the Election was called, the Brexit debate was not so much about Leave or Remain but about how to leave. In effect, the Tories were the party of hard Brexit, while Labour was the party of soft Brexit.

‘Despite uncertainty over its position on the single market, Labour was seen as the best bet by those wanting to keep closer ties with Europe,’ the study said.

‘Not only did it win over a large number of Remainers from the Conservatives, but also from the pro-EU Greens and Lib Dems.’

Though they had the clearest pro-EU position and a promise of a second referendum, the Lib Dems failed to pick up many more anti-Brexit voters than they lost to other parties.

Voters were asked if it was more important to protect access to the single market or gain full control of immigration.

Labour had a massive lead over the Tories among those who regarded full access to the single market as vital, while the reverse was true among those who put immigration first.

For all the attempts by Mrs May and Mr Corbyn to focus on other issues, ‘in the minds of voters the 2017 Election was the Brexit Election,’ the authors conclude, adding: ‘Actions speak louder than words and voters were not only concerned by Brexit but actually voted accordingly.’

More than one in three said Brexit or the EU was the biggest issue, compared to just one in 20 who chose the economy.

Labour’s success among those who favoured a soft Brexit is all the more surprising given Mr Corbyn’s apparent reluctance to back staying in the single market, despite heavy pressure from Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer. Sir Keir’s pro-single market stance has prompted speculation of a Commons alliance with Tory MPs who back a soft exit from the EU in order to block a hard Brexit.

The authors also placed blame for Tory losses on the PM’s weak campaign, saying: ‘The Conservative strategy to pin so much on their “strong and stable” leader appears to have been a spectacular mistake which cost them an overall majority.’

The British Election Study has tracked the same 30,000 voters over three years, asking them hundreds of questions about their political views and choices on 13 occasions.