WE CAN’T TAKE THIS PEACE FOR GRANTED
A powerfully personal warning from a former PM ...
ISPENT many years of my political life trying to end conflict in Northern Ireland, and was delighted when Tony Blair concluded the Good Friday Agreement. Since then, life in Northern Ireland – and the relationship between North and South – has been transformed.
Today, when you drive from Northern Ireland into the Republic, there is little to indicate that any border has been crossed, other than different road markings and traffic signs.
Peace – together with mutual British and Irish membership of the EU – has ushered in a finer relationship between Dublin and London than we have ever known in the past. Now, unless we proceed with care, Brexit may undermine it.
When the Good Friday Agreement was implemented, the security border between North and South was swept away. No one missed it. The old border is now remembered as a hated symbol of ‘The Troubles’, with its Army checkpoints, listening posts and watch-towers.
The memory of that border is so toxic that no one who knew it in the past wishes to see it return – in any form – in the future. But when the UK leaves Europe, the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will become the perimeter of the EU – and, under EU law, customs checks will be unavoidable. This reality raises some unwelcome truths.
Although new customs posts would not remotely be the same as the security apparatus of the past, the very fact of a physical border may reopen sectarian fears. It is possible that both Nationalists and Unionists will handle a new border with aplomb – but equally, they may not.
ANY new customs border will create practical difficulties. Ten thousand commercial vehicles travel back and forth across the border each day, carrying a vast range of goods. This weight of commerce is bound to cause delays, queues, and administrative obligations that will lead to higher costs for companies and consumers on both sides of the border.
No doubt many goods can be cleared in some invisible, frictionless way – as yet unidentified – but not all.
Some, such as animals and animal feed, which cross the border every hour of every day, will probably have to be examined for health and safety reasons, in order to avoid infections and diseases such as BSE. If so, a physical border seems unavoidable. And since the border winds through over 300 miles of countryside, this may well require a number of border posts to be erected.
The hostility to border controls is far wider than frustration over bureaucracy. The fear is that the border becomes a target – an outlet for Unionist or Nationalist fringes that wish to provoke trouble.
The current impasse over forming an administration in Northern Ireland is proof that all political passion is not spent, and history reminds us that grievances in Ireland can often be magnified into violence.
What happens if local incidents cause the border to be attacked – as there is ample past reason to believe it might be? Is security brought in? Does that reactivate old disputes that begin a downward spiral? As the age-old conflicts of Ireland tell us, this is a clear and present fear. The removal of hope is corrosive.
Opposition to a hard border is not just some anti-Brexit tactic. Sir Hugh Orde, the former Chief Constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland, has warned that the political consequence of Brexit will ‘play into the hands of those who are still determined to destroy the relative peace we have enjoyed’ and that customs posts ‘could be a target for dissident paramilitaries’.
I know that, after the many years of peace Ireland has enjoyed since the Good Friday Agreement, it is easy to believe there is no further risk. And I wish that were so. But that peace, which many people strove for years to achieve, is still fragile, and even the smallest risk must not be taken. Permanent peace in Northern Ireland is not a given. It is not certain. It cannot be taken for granted.
The British and Irish governments, and the European Commission, all understand the bleak symbolism of any border – but no one has yet found a way to avoid it. The British Government seeks a ‘seamless and frictionless’ border but no one seems to know how that can be achieved – if at all.
EASY soundbites that technology must be able to find a way to avoid physical checks are unconvincing, for thus far no one can explain how this would work in practice. A few days ago, the EU released a legal text setting out a ‘fall-back’ position should a frictionless border be elusive. At this point the debate became toxic. The EU was accused of a ‘power grab’ to divide Northern Ireland from the UK – and install it within the EU. Although this is a fanciful interpretation, this is not a resolution the British Government can accept politically – as the Prime Minister has made clear.
But this dilemma was created by the UK’s decision to quit the EU, and so the onus is on upon the Government to find a solution. Thus far, it is elusive.
Membership of a Customs Union would remove the need for a hard border – but the Government has ruled that out.
In the Prime Minister’s speech on Friday, she again emphasised her wish to avoid a hard border. She is working with the Irish Taoiseach and the Commission to find a solution – and I wish them all well. But until one is found, the risk remains.
Whatever is finally decided, we must be acutely sensitive over the impact our policies will have on Ireland. As ancient grievances fade, we must not create new ones.
Opinion in Nationalist areas of Northern Ireland is already unsettled by the decision to leave the EU. Nationalists fear the loss of funding from Europe. They see a threat to the growing economic and cultural ties to the South. And, following
As ancient grievances fade we must not create new ones
the British Government’s ‘supply deal’ with the DUP to obtain their support in the Commons, they are no longer sure the Government can be impartial between the two communities.
It is clear that Brexit will hurt Ireland, our nearest neighbour. That was not the intention, but it is the reality. The Irish Central Bank believes that a complete British dislocation from the EU could cost 40,000 jobs in the Republic, and shrink their economy by three per cent in a decade. Anglo-Irish trade would fall: so would crossborder trade between North and South.
Moreover, there are over 140 areas of co-operation that have been set up under EU frameworks in areas such as health, energy and animal welfare. Will they be replicated post-Brexit?
After 20 years of progress in Ireland, there is a risk that we will go backwards. The lack of any border had both a practical and symbolic role in establishing peace and, if one reappears – even in benign form – it will have ramifications.
The economies of North and South may become less entwined. Agitation for a poll on a united Ireland will renew. And, if North-South trade links begin to weaken, or if economic progress stalls, frustration will follow.
All of this comes at a time when Westminster may have to resume direct rule if the DUP and Sinn Fein cannot restore devolved government. This is a deeply worrying cocktail.
Brexit, even without its Irish complications, is extraordinarily complex. But as the difficulties become more apparent, the implications for Ireland must not be forgotten.
There is goodwill everywhere to solve the border question and that is a hopeful sign, but originality and flexibility are essential – together with a large dose of mutual respect and understanding.