The ‘dead woman walking’ who still refuses to step aside
FOR someone dubbed ‘a ‘dead woman walking’, Theresa May is getting a lot of value out of her shoe leather. That damning description of Mrs May was delivered by George Osborne – the Chancellor she dumped – the weekend after she lost her majority in a General Election she did not need to call.
It seemed a fair judgment at the time. Her future was being measured in weeks rather than months, but that was more than a year ago and whether or not she has hope in her heart, she walks on.
The Prime Minister’s position may still not be secure but you can see her tenure as a story of a shambles – or that of a remarkable survivor.
After heading up the worst General Election campaign since Michael Foot’s ‘suicide note’ manifesto in 1983, swapping a majority for a minority, Mrs May was given to the Tory Party conference to survive.
The conference could not have been worse for her. She painfully coughed and spluttered her way through her speech, a prankster handed her a P45 and even the sign behind her fell apart.
Yet she survived while others have perished.
She lost her deputy and dear friend Damian Green after he was accused of sending lewd texts. Her defence secretary and ally Michael Fallon resigned when questions were raised about how he relates to women.
Her successor at the Home Office, Amber Rudd, had to quit when her department proved itself not fit for purpose in the Windrush scandal.
Yet Mrs May walks on as other rivals for her job walk the plank.
When she appointed Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary, put David Davis in charge of Brexit negotiations and Liam Fox of trade deals, it looked like clever, if cynical politics. Let the Brexiteers clean up the mess they got the country into.
Now that David Davis has resigned on principle and Boris Johnson in a delayed fit of pique, you might think her position would be undermined, yet instead it appears strengthened.
The Prime Minister appoints an arch-Brexiteer, Dominic Raab, to take over Brexit talks and then says she will handle them herself.
Part of her strength is the weakness of others. The Tory Party cannot agree on what a Brexit deal looks like, let alone who her successor might be.
Hardliners threaten to challenge her for the leadership if she does not deliver a ‘hard’ Brexit. Yet how real can those threats be? Mrs May has made it clear she will stand again in any contest. The chances are she would win it. The alternative would be a leadership contest that would take months and probably delay our departure from the EU or risk a General Election that Jeremy Corbyn could win.
In those circumstances the threats don’t seem credible.
Theresa May is underestimated. She is having to deal with the greatest political crisis in this country since the Second World War. She is doing so against the backdrop of one of the greatest political blunders of the modern era.
The Prime Minister was not wrong in calling last year’s General Election. Her failure was not to run a proper campaign.
That could sap the strongest of spirits, gnaw away at self-confidence as vultures circle. Yet, she has more than held on.
Mrs May played the Brexit game long with her own Cabinet. What looked like dithering could have been strategy as she shortened the opportunity for debate.
Time is running out and while the Chequers agreement has many flaws, what she seems to be delivering is Brexit in name only.
She might have lost David Davis and Boris Johnson but even arch-Brexiteers such as Michael Gove and Liam Fox have signed up to it. She appears to have outmanoeuvred them.
That does not mean that the road ahead is a straight one. The EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier has already ruled out her proposals for a customs arrangement.
But he would be well advised not to make the same mistakes as the likes of Mr Davis and Mr Johnson in thinking that the Prime Minister is weak.
SHE has taken back control of the Brexit negotiations and is currently reaching out to other heads of government around Europe. No deal is not a realistic option. It would be a cataclysmic failure of politics on the UK’s behalf but also the EU’s.
Our negotiations have been a shambles, as the UK pursues a path that will likely lead to self-harm.
But give Theresa May some credit. From the weakest of positions she appears determined to do what she sees as the right thing, no matter the cost to her personally.
There will doubtless be plots against her but she seems to have plotted her way past some of her greatest rivals with great skill.
Her position remains precarious. The odds are against her.
But those things have been true since last year’s General Election, and still she survives.
Those who underestimate her do so at their own peril. Just ask Boris.