The Scottish Mail on Sunday

The public’s verdict on our political class? They waver between fury and contempt

- Full details of Lord Ashcroft’s research can be found at LordAshcro­ftPolls.com

They seem to have made up a law and found Boris guilty of breaking it Those bringing lawsuits have money – it’s like they’ve got an extra vote

because it can be undermined by people of influence.’

Nor are they optimistic. While nearly eight in ten Conservati­ve Leave voters agree with Boris that Brexit should happen at the end of October with or without a deal, only one in three think this is the most likely outcome. Nearly a quarter think we will end up remaining in the EU. This being the case, it is not surprising that among those currently leaning towards backing Nigel Farage, the most important attribute a party can have is not competence or even having the right priorities for the country, but that it does what it says it will do.

This shows the possible reward – but the potential peril – of the PM nailing his colours so firmly to the Brexit mast. So far, on that score, Boris gets credit for battling on through the furore to uphold the referendum verdict.

This comes not just from Tories, and some even told us they were surprised he had turned out to be so principled and determined. Six in ten Leave voters and most of those intending to vote Conservati­ve say they would like to see him refuse to ask for an extension to Article 50 if no agreement is reached by October 19, despite the new legal mandate to do so.

He trounces Jeremy Corbyn when we ask who would make the best PM – in fact, Labour Leave voters prefer him to the prospect of their own leader entering No10. And while many Tory Remainers are nervous about the idea of a No Deal Brexit, they would choose this over a Corbyn-led Labour government by a huge margin, as would voters as a whole, by 48 per cent to 35 per cent.

Thrilling though they may have been for constituti­onal scholars, then, the past few days have changed little in the Brexit debate. People on all sides feel just as strongly as they did before Lady Hale’s brooch became a national talking point. But the Election, when it comes, will be about more than whether and how we leave the EU.

‘Dealing with Brexit in the right way’ certainly tops the list when we ask what people think are the most important issues facing the country. But when we ask what matters most to them and their families, it falls to third, behind the cost of living and the NHS. It is worth rememberin­g that 2017 started out as the Brexit Election, but ended up being about everything else: social care, nationalis­ation, the NHS – even fox hunting – and the characteri­stics of the two leaders.

There is also the perennial problem of the Conservati­ve Party’s brand. At the last time round, many Labour voters simply could not bring themselves to vote for what they saw as the party of cuts however strongly they agreed with Theresa May that Brexit should mean Brexit. As my research finds, Tory-sceptic voters are taking Boris’s pledges of extra spending on health and the police with not just a pinch but a wheelbarro­w of salt.

All of these ingredient­s will go into the next Election, which in turn will not be a single national battle but a series of local skirmishes with each party having to fight on more than one front. Boris must keep Tory Remainers on board while bringing back those tempted by the Brexit Party; Jo Swinson will see whether her Remain-in-allcircums­tances position plays as well for the Lib Dems in the South West of England as it does in the South-West of London; and Jeremy Corbyn’s policy of deliberate ambiguity will be tested to the limit in places as culturally different as Brighton and Stoke. Finally, there is the question of the voters’ stamina. Many Leavers see the endless delays as a campaign to wear them down, and some admit it is working. ‘I find myself going from anger to apathy really quickly,’ one told us.

Though people hold strongly to their position and have their personal champions – whether Boris, Jo, Jeremy or Nigel – their view of the political class as a whole wavers between fury and contempt: many are torn not just between parties, but over whether to bother voting at all.

It is a wearying saga, and we haven’t reached the end of it yet.

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