Back to school now in doubt
Full-time return after Easter is no longer ‘a done deal’ Scientists fear classrooms could fuel surge in R rate New cases soar by 15% with almost 640 in last 24 hours That’s number of fliers A WEEK travelling here via England, dodging £1,750 quarantine
PLANS for a full-time return to classrooms after Easter have been thrown into doubt as Covid infection rates remain stubbornly high.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon had vowed to reopen schools in April – full-time and for all pupils – if the virus was under control.
But experts have now warned Ministers this may not be possible and students’ return should not be regarded as a ‘done deal’.
A further 639 cases of coronavirus were recorded in the previous 24 hours, figures published yesterday show – up 15 per cent from the 555 new cases noted last Saturday.
Late last month, limited numbers of primary and senior secondary pupils began their return to classrooms. From tomorrow, all primary pupils return full-time and all secondary pupils return part-time.
But health chiefs are anxiously waiting to see what impact the phased return to schools will have on transmission rates.
Informed sources say that if schools are found to be fuelling a rise in the R number – the reproduction rate of the virus – then scientific advisers will warn against a full-time return.
The Government wants to see pupils back full-time after Easter, depending on the continued suppression of the virus.
However, even as restrictions were eased slightly on Friday, the Scottish Government’s national clinical director, Professor Jason Leitch, warned of a worrying rise in cases.
One insider said: ‘The Government hopes to get schools back full-time after Easter. But it’s not a done deal that there will be a full return. The scientists are sounding more cautious. They want to make sure the data from schools reopening in England, and after that the data from Scotland, is closely monitored.
‘Some of the data they are looking at suggests rates of the virus in children are higher than the general adult population, and there are concerns there have been some outbreaks in schools where one or two cases have quickly exploded.’
Schools in Scotland were forced to remain closed after Christmas amid fears over the spread of a mutant form of the virus.
Nursery and P1-P3 pupils returned on February 22, along with a very limited number of senior pupils doing practical work for their national qualifications.
Primaries 4-7 return full-time from tomorrow, while secondary pupils will be part-time until after Easter.
But advice on the phased return from the Coronavirus (Covid-19): Advisory Sub-Group on Education and Children’s Issues, published on March 3, states: ‘It remains important to monitor the impact of the phases very carefully as any change could push the R number back above 1.
‘This would not be an acceptable public health risk.’
Health experts are already monitoring outbreaks of coronavirus which led to the closure of two primary schools in Ayrshire only weeks after they reopened.
They included Braehead Primary in Ayr, which was reported to have closed after 12 teachers tested positive for Covid. It will remain shut until at least March 22.
Outbreaks have also been reported in schools in the Western Isles, Dunbartonshire and West Lothian. On Friday, Professor Leitch warned lockdown easing could be reversed if numbers continued to rise.
The insider said: ‘The argument all along has been that you don’t see transmission in schools, it’s brought in from outside. But what you could see is the virus taken out of schools back into the community.
‘There is a concern around that and that’s why they want to monitor the impact and see whether the full return can go ahead without any physical distancing.
‘Some of the concern is that political imperatives are driving this.
‘We’ll have to see how things go over the next few weeks because this new variant is a lot more transmissible.
‘The school population will increase significantly in the coming weeks.
‘As you build up the number of pupils and staff going in and the interaction between school and community, you’ve got a real expansion of activity within society which could help the virus spread again. The R number overall is coming down but you could argue that might mask the impact of schools returning and possibly push the R number in the opposite direction.
‘As schools open up, is that general trend going to continue or is the impact of opening up schools going to reverse the decline of the R number?
‘The experts will very closely monitor the data. If they’re concerned, they may well recommend to the Government not to go to a full return after Easter. By then we’ll be up against the [Holyrood] election, so political considerations will play into it.’
Yesterday’s figures showed a further eight people had died after testing positive. The number of people in hospital fell by 33 to 479, while 38 people were in intensive care – the same as the previous day.
In total, 7,508 people have died who had tested positive for the virus within the previous 28 days. Some 1,867,123 people have had a first vaccination and 156,250 have had a second dose.
‘Not be an acceptable public health risk’
GROWING numbers of air passengers are using a loophole in Scotland’s ‘half-baked’ rules to dodge quarantine.
There has been a rise in travellers avoiding the Scottish Government’s mandatory hotel quarantine system by flying into other UK airports, figures show.
Since February 15, anyone flying directly into Scotland from any part of the world has been required to pay at least £1,750 for ten nights in a supervised quarantine hotel.
But the restriction does not apply to travellers arriving in Scotland from other UK airports – even if they began their journeys overseas.
The quarantine requirement led to the numbers flying directly into Scotland plummeting, while there was an increase in people flying into the UK then on to Scotland.
In the week beginning January 4, 10,584 passengers flew directly into Scotland, compared with 3,848 who arrived north of the Border from overseas via another UK
‘The SNP’s quarantine policy is riddled with loopholes’
airport. After quarantine was introduced, passengers changed their behaviour. In the week beginning February 15, only 511 passengers flew directly into Scotland, against 1,999 who arrived via another UK airport. The following week, 650 people flew in directly, compared with 2,280 coming from elsewhere in the UK.
Scottish Labour’s Colin Smyth, who obtained the figures after a parliamentary question, described the quarantine policy as ‘halfbaked’, adding: ‘It was clear that loopholes meant people would circumvent the restrictions, which was obvious to everyone except the SNP.’
Before quarantine was introduced, the number of passengers arriving on international flights to Edinburgh, Glasgow and Aberdeen airports outweighed the number of those flying indirectly.
At the beginning of January, only 3,848 of 14,432 arrivals in Scotland were on indirect flights. All international passengers arriving at Scottish airports must quarantine.
The UK Government requires this only for those coming from countries on the ‘red list’. Passengers flying to Scotland from elsea where in the UK or Ireland can self-isolate at home when they arrive, provided they have not been to any ‘red list’ countries.
Mr Smyth, spokesman for the constitution, Brexit and external affairs, said: ‘Not only are 80 per cent of passengers arriving in Scotland avoiding managed quarantine by travelling via England, but a week into the new policy passenger numbers are actually beginning to rise again.
‘The SNP’s hotel quarantine policy is riddled with loopholes made all the worse by the fact that it came almost a year too late.’
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon had previously implored the UK Government to track down Scotland-bound travellers flying into English airports to ensure they booked a quarantine hotel. But UK Ministers insisted anyone flying into England from a ‘low risk’ country could simply quarantine at home.
Two weeks ago, the ‘red list’ row reignited when the Brazilian strain of the coronavirus was found in three Scots who flew into Aberdeen from Heathrow, having travelled from Brazil via Paris.
The oil workers had tested negative before leaving Brazil but tested positive while selfisolating, forcing all passengers on the flight to be contacted.
A Scottish Government spokesman said: ‘We cannot unilaterally implement immediate managed quarantine for people who arrive in other parts of the UK before travelling to Scotland.
‘We have asked the UK Government to work with us to address this.’