Scientists say: ‘Get Plan B ready to go’
THE Government should ensure “Plan B” restrictions can be “rapidly” brought in if needed, its scientific advisers have said, as data shows rising infections across England.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said a further big peak in infections as seen in January was “increasingly unlikely”, as experts predict a series of broader, flatter peaks as the virus continues to spread.
However, in its meeting dated October 14, Sage warned that if measures from the Government’s “Plan B” are needed, then they should be brought in together for the biggest effect.
It is thought scientists are in favour of a relatively light touch approach, implemented early, to make a difference, rather than needing harder restrictions at a later date.
Sage said the “reintroduction of working from home guidance is likely to have the greatest individual impact on transmission out of the proposed measures” in Plan B, which includes the mandatory use of face masks.
Sage also advised that “policy work on the potential reintroduction of measures should be undertaken now so that it can be ready
for rapid deployment”. It comes as data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows about one in 55 people in private households in England had Covid-19 in the week to October 16, up from one in 60 the previous week.
In Wales, infection levels remain unchanged, but have dropped in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
In a review of all the evidence, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O) told Sage this month: “It will take both a rapid increase in transmission rates and repeated waning of protection from vaccination to lead to hospital admission levels in the order of magnitude of those seen in January 2021.
“Unless both these eventualities occur, or a new variant of concern emerges, it is highly unlikely that such levels of hospital admissions will be reached in the coming autumn and winter.”
SPI-M-O said that if protection from vaccination does not wane much further than already seen, “hospital admission rates are unlikely to get significantly higher than those currently seen”.
It added: “If booster vaccinations are effective, have a high uptake, and do not wane over the timescales considered here, then hospital admission rates are also unlikely to get much higher than currently seen.”
In its evidence to Sage, SPI-M-O said the “timing of the next peak is uncertain”, adding: “This could vary from ‘it has already happened’ to ‘late into 2022.’”
SPI-M-O also said it was “possible” that “action beyond Plan B may be required to control growth”, adding that “Sage have been asked to consider the potential effect of returning to the steps outlined in February 2021’s Roadmap”.