Timing is of the essence as indyref battle lines drawn
Older voters reject pre-Brexit referendum
BATTLE l i nes are being drawn over the timing of a second Scottish referendum, The Sunday Post can reveal.
Prime Minister Theresa May could officially trigger the two-year Brexit process as early as Tuesday.
And the SNP have warned that beginning the negotiations to leave the European Union without a deal in place to “protect Scotland’s interests” will result in another independence poll.
Nicola Sturgeon has indicated another referendum should take place before the UK leaves the EU, claiming autumn next year would be “commonsense” timing.
But The Sunday Post’s exclusive opinion poll shows older voters are against this timescale.
Only 23% were in favour of another indyref being held before the UK leaves the EU, while 69% opposed the idea.
This will be a boon for Downing Street strategists who, it is understood, want to hold off until after Brexit negotiations have concluded to avoid tackling two massive political fights at the same time.
While it will fight the prospect of a second referendum for as long as it can, one UK Government source said it was “difficult to see Section 30 ( the legislative order to allow Holyrood to hold a second referendum) being blocked”.
This narrative was given a big boost yesterday when Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said it was “absolutely fine” for another vote to be held, adding it wasn’t the job of Westminster or his party to block the vote.
However, the legal move would have to be passed by both Westminster and Holyrood, with key issues, such as who has the right to vote and the wording of the question, resolved – a process that took almost two years last time round.
In contrast to Mr Corbyn, Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale vowed to oppose a second vote being held.
She said: “Our country still bears the scars of the last referendum, and this poll shows no one wants to go through that again any time soon.
“The Labour Party I lead will never support independence and we will vote against a second referendum in the Scottish parliament.”
If, as expected, the Prime Minister triggers Article 50 to signal the formal process of leaving the EU without agreeing to the Scottish Government’s demands, such as access to the single market, then an indyref2 is almost certain.
The legislative power to hold a referendum lies with Westminster
and the Scottish Government would, as it did for the 2014 poll, have to negotiate the terms for Holyrood to be handed these controls.
Our poll found that 58% of people thought the power to call another indyref should lie with the UK Government, while 36% said it should be handed to Holyrood. A further 7% were not sure. Last week, former Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg was asked if the UK Government should block another referendum by denying Holyrood the necessary legislative power under Section 30 of the 1998 Scotland Act.
He said: “It would not be legitimate for Westminster to frustrate the will of Scotland in the way the Spanish government had banned Catalonia from holding a referendum on autonomy. Clearly, in a mature democracy, you can’t do that.”
The former Lib Dem leader added: “I think it would be very difficult for any government of any composition in London to try to impose a fatwa on any move towards a referendum.”
The UK Government has long said the Brexit process would be formally triggered this month.
There had been speculation that it could take place this week following crunch votes in the Commons and Lords.
However, it is thought the SNP will wait until Article 50 is triggered before beginning the next independence campaign.
This means that Miss Sturgeon’s keynote address at the SNP conference in Aberdeen may not contain as many fireworks as the party faithful are hoping for.
It is understood the First Minister, if she is going to call a referendum, will do so at a non- SNP event to make the launch more inclusive.
However, if the Brexit process is indeed triggered this week, SNP insiders are tipping their leader to use her conference address to announce she will put a vote to MSPs at Holyrood on whether the Scottish Parliament should be given the power to hold a second referendum.
An SNP spokesman said: “The Scottish Government has a castiron democratic mandate for a referendum if that’s the chosen route to protect our national interests in the face of a hard Brexit. This was a specific manifesto commitment on which the SNP was re-elected just 10 months ago.”