Winning Queen’s is not imperative for Murray
Aiden O’Brien. THE much-missed BBC Racing Correspondent, Julian Wilson, passed on some great advice many years ago, when saying: “Don’t back a flat horse until Royal Ascot”.
He wasn’t being in the slightest elitist, just making the relevant point that from the start of racing on the level in March, by June they should all have had a run.
In the case of the week’s best bet, Churchill in the St James Palace Stakes in Tuesday’s opening-day card, the Aiden O’Brien-trained colt has had two.
The Galilieo colt has won the 2000 Guineas on both sides of the Irish Sea, having sidestepped the Epsom Derby after doubts about his ability to stay a mile-and-a-half.
Unbeaten in seven races since a debut defeat at the Curragh in May last year, he has always looked something very special kept at this kind of distance.
In his quest to make it eightin-a-row, he has the benefit of a course win in the listed Chesham Stakes at this meeting last year, and he is a shade odds-on to follow up.
The Royal Hunt Cup on Wednesday could see William Haggas’s Afjaan continue his improvement after a hugelyimpressive first run of the season at Haydock in April, where he decimated a competitive field.
This is a step up in grade, but those who follow Haggas in these big handicaps will have noted that, although the Haydock margin was a lengthand-three-quarters, the win was easy.
Order Of St George has been competing at shorter trips since being a smooth winner of the Gold Cup last year, and it’s very difficult to see him lose.
He was only three-and-aquarter lengths third in O’Brien’s 1-2-3 in the Arc last October, and with his comfort at twoand-a-half miles known, he’s a cracking bet.
Andy Murray and coach Ivan Lendl celebrate a record Queen’s Club success 12 months ago. but he’s now Wimbledon.”
Murray enjoyed a spectacular run in 2016, in which he won nine times, including Wimbledon and the Olympics, and claimed the World No. 1 spot from Novak Djokovic in the last match of the year.
After all that success, Cowan was not surprised there was a let-down.
“Andy had an incredible six months,” he states. “But it was a tough six months.
“He gave absolutely everything and that leaves you mentally drained. The tennis that he plays, he has to be 100% in terms of his energy levels.
“A drop of even 5% and you lose
ready
to win matches, you lose confidence and then your peers think you’re vulnerable.
“He has never had the luxury of Federer. He has always had to fight harder to win his matches because of their different styles.
“He has got over the difficulties of the illness and injury and it was nice to see him play the tennis he did against Juan Martin del Potro, and StanWawrinka, even though he lost.
“Andy’s confidence is back and he knows how to get it done on grass.”
While Murray will hope for a good warm-up for Wimbledon, French Open Champion Rafael Nadal has withdrawn from Queen’s.
And Cowan asserts that could spell the end of the Spaniard’s chances at SW19.
“This changes the goalposts,” he says. “I didn’t think Rafa would win Wimbledon again, but I had changed my mind after his performance in Paris. With this decision, I have changed it back again.
“Rafa needs matches on grass and he won’t get them. He will be vulnerable early on at Wimbledon because he’ll go in cold.
“I don’t care how many matches he has won in 2017, there are enough players in the draw who can hit through him in the early rounds when he won’t be at his best.”