ANALYSIS

THIS is a critical moment for the future of France.

Some have already suggested the country is in a state of civil war.

What I do believe is extremists will continue to target France for a number of reasons.

The first is we know many French citizens travelled to Syria in the past and many of those have now returned home.

Intelligence has also revealed there are two French nationals in senior command roles in ISIS.

This, coupled with France’s involvement in Syria, will clearly influence which countries they will target.

It could be that the French security services will avoid some of the criticism for the Nice atrocity, as it appears Mohammed Bouhel may not have had direct links to ISIS.

However, the pressure will mount if there is a clear connection.

The more attacks there are, the more likely it is Marine Le Pen will come to power and France will move to the right.

If she is voted in, there’s no doubt in my mind that the whole situation will escalate.

France is already in a very precarious position, the authorities cannot afford to take drastic actions.

A move to the right and the adoption of an even harder line will only give the extremists a greater ability to recruit.

The right wing do a lot on repression and not enough on prevention, that is the problem with their approach.

The extremists know this and, of course, their attacks are designed to push the buttons of the French public and create the panic they desire.